The USMNT has done everything you would have asked for up to this point in the tournament.
They’re through. They’re healthy. They’re positioned for a favorable draw. And they’ve already accomplished things that no US men’s team has accomplished in a World Cup in decades.
The Best Start in Decades
In the last 75 years of the World Cup, the United States had never won two games in a single tournament.
They already have.
In the last 75 years, the United States had never scored four goals in a World Cup game.
They did it in their first game.
In the last 75 years, the United States had never beaten an opponent by more than two goals.
They did it in their first game.
And in the last 75 years, the United States had never had a positive goal differential in a World Cup tournament.
They’re plus-five right now.
What’s even more impressive is they’ve done it with the guy who’s supposed to be their best player, Christian Pulisic, only playing one half so far.
Now they get to rest everyone and not worry about yellow cards in the final group stage game.
There is some confusion on the yellow card situation, so let me explain it quickly:
While yellow card accumulation does not carry over from the group stage to the knockout round, suspensions do. If you pick up two yellow cards during the group stage, that suspension carries over.
So anyone sitting on one yellow card after the first two group-stage games who gets another yellow in the third game is suspended for the Round of 32.
That means Mauricio Pochettino, who’s done a brilliant job, can sit everyone carrying a yellow card, can sit Pulisic one more game, and get everything ready for July 1.
Why the USMNT Is So Well Positioned
In all likelihood, the United States is going to play Bosnia in the Round of 32, and they’ll be a big favorite in that matchup.
The only way that changes is if Qatar beats Bosnia. In that case, the U.S. would play Qatar, which would be even better.
And I know nobody likes chalky bets, but the U.S. to advance to the Round of 16 at -275 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is worth a look.
If they’re playing Bosnia, they’ll probably be around -275 anyway. If they’re playing Qatar, they’ll probably be closer to -375.
So if you were going to bet it, now would be the time.
Nick’s Pick: USMNT to Advance to the Round of 16 (-275)
What Comes Next for the USMNT
This has been the goal all along: make the quarterfinals for just the second time in U.S. men’s World Cup history and then see what happens.
Their most likely Round of 16 opponent is no longer Belgium – it’s Egypt.
And as great as Mo Salah is, the United States would be the favorite in that matchup.
Now, this is where you can be excited about the U.S. without getting ahead of yourself.
If they make the quarterfinals, they would almost assuredly be playing Spain, one of the favorites entering the tournament.
If they were to win that game, they’d then almost assuredly get France or Germany in the semifinals.
So yes, it gets incredibly difficult. That’s why true underdogs almost never win this tournament.
But getting to the final eight and doing it in the fashion they’ve done would be a massive accomplishment.
Looking at the Rest of the Bracket
On the top-right side of the bracket, we’re probably going to get Brazil against Japan in the Round of 32, with the winner facing either Ivory Coast or Norway.
The way Norway is playing, Brazil vs. Norway in the Round of 16 feels likely. I’d favor Brazil, but that would be a great match.
Mexico has already advanced and will almost certainly play Scotland in its first knockout-round match.
They’ll be slight favorites there, but then they’d likely run into England in the Round of 16, and that’s probably where their tournament ends.
Argentina is probably headed toward a matchup with one of the stories of the tournament, Cape Verde, in the Round of 32 before likely seeing a disappointing Belgium side in the Round of 16.
On the bottom-right side of the bracket, Canada is likely looking at Algeria, though a number of third-place teams could still end up there. Portugal is waiting on the other side.
Nick Wright’s Quarterfinal Predictions
The bracket isn’t finalized yet, but I’ll go ahead and predict the final eight teams.
I believe we’re going to get:
- United States
- Spain
- Netherlands
- France
- Brazil
- England
- Argentina
- Portugal
The toughest call there is France vs. Germany in the Round of 16. I’ll take France.
If everything holds, I’d have France beating the Netherlands and Spain beating the United States.
That would set up a France-Spain semifinal, and I’d take France to make a third straight World Cup final.
On the other side, I’d take Brazil over England and Argentina over Portugal.
And honestly, how good would Argentina vs. Portugal be? Messi vs. Ronaldo with a trip to the semifinals on the line.
Nick Wright’s World Cup Winner Pick
I’m sticking with the pick I made before the tournament started: Brazil (+575).
I think Brazil beats Argentina.
I think Brazil beats France.
And I think Brazil wins the World Cup.
Big upsets over the next few days could completely change the bracket.
But if they don’t, that’s how I see this tournament playing out from here.
This World Cup has been unbelievable so far, and if the bracket falls the way I think it will, the best matches are still ahead.
Nick’s Pick: Brazil to win the World Cup (+575)
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