BettingPros PGA Show: 2026 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions

Welcome in, we’re back with another edition of the BettingPros PGA podcast.

We are about to give you our betting preview of the third major of the year, the U.S. Open. Our national championship of golf is returning to Shinnecock Hills, a classic U.S. Open venue.

We are excited to get into it.

U.S. Open Preview

We turn our attention to the 125th edition of the U.S. Open, which will be played at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island, New York.

Shinnecock Hills is a classic venue that has hosted five previous U.S. Opens, the first way back in 1896. It’s hard not to wonder what kind of equipment they were using back then.

The most recent U.S. Open at Shinnecock was in 2018. It’s a par 70 that will play to 7,440 yards. At first glance, the scorecard might seem deceiving. The opening hole is only 394 yards, but then you get a 252-yard par 3 at No. 2 and a 501-yard par 4 at No. 3. Make no mistake – Shinnecock is going to play long.

Shinnecock Hills is considered the crown jewel of American links golf. There are very few trees on the property that come into play, leaving the course fully exposed to the elements. Situated on Long Island, the layout is heavily influenced by winds coming off the Atlantic Ocean.

The fairways are wide, but they’re firm. Many feature significant slopes and diagonal angles that make them play much narrower than they appear. And if players miss those fairways, they’ll quickly discover why Shinnecock has earned its reputation. There is a modest first cut before giving way to thick, punishing fescue rough.

Tiger Woods played his first U.S. Open here as a 19-year-old amateur in 1995 and was forced to withdraw during the second round after injuring his wrist while attempting to hit out of the rough.

While water only comes into play on one hole, Shinnecock’s 151 bunkers more than make up for it. Many of them are strategically placed and exceptionally penal.

One change since the 2018 U.S. Open is that fairway mowing lines have been moved closer to several fairway bunkers, increasing the likelihood that those hazards come into play off the tee.

The greens are a mix of poa annua and bentgrass. While they’re relatively large on average, many will play much smaller because of their firmness, elevation changes and severe slopes. Holding these greens with approach shots will be one of the week’s biggest challenges.

Around the greens, tightly mown runoffs place a premium on creativity and touch. Slight misses can leave players with delicate chips from tight lies, bunker shots, or lengthy uphill pitches after balls roll well away from the putting surfaces. In many ways, Shinnecock tests short-game skill similarly to Augusta.

The back nine typically plays slightly tougher than the front, even though the front side often faces the prevailing wind. Two holes in particular stand out.

The par-3 11th measures just 157 yards, making it the shortest hole on the course. Yet Lee Trevino famously called it the shortest par 5 in golf. The hole plays 17 feet uphill to the smallest green on the property, protected by four large bunkers cut into the hillside. Any shot that carries too far can roll down a steep embankment, leaving a difficult recovery.

Then there’s the 14th, a 520-yard par 4 that plays downhill and often downwind. Despite those advantages, it was the toughest hole during the 2018 U.S. Open, producing a scoring average of nearly 4.74.

Part of the challenge is the conflicting design. The fairway slopes from right to left while the hole doglegs slightly left to right. A fairway bunker more than 300 yards from the tee catches plenty of drives, and approach shots offer very little room for error on either side of the green.

Looking at the four modern U.S. Opens held at Shinnecock Hills provides a good indication of the test players face:

• Ray Floyd won at 1-under par in 1986, with every other player finishing over par.
• Corey Pavin won at even par in 1995.
• Retief Goosen captured the title at 4-under par in 2004.
• Brooks Koepka won at 1-over par in 2018, edging Tommy Fleetwood by a stroke.

The 2018 championship is also remembered for Phil Mickelson’s controversial decision to strike a moving ball on the putting green after becoming frustrated with the course conditions.

J.J. Spaun enters this week as the defending U.S. Open champion after winning at another demanding venue, Oakmont Country Club, last year.

Weather could play a major role. Forecasts call for dry conditions throughout the tournament, temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s, and sustained winds of 20-30 mph on Thursday. Winds are expected to remain a factor throughout the weekend, creating the firm-and-fast conditions that define great U.S. Opens.

The atmosphere should be every bit as challenging as the golf course. With Long Island hosting one of golf’s premier events, the crowds will be loud, energetic and fully engaged throughout the week.

We’ve been looking forward to Shinnecock’s return to the major championship spotlight for months, and this setup has all the ingredients to produce a classic U.S. Open. What stands out most to you about this week’s test?

Bo McBrayer on Shinnecock Hills

Carnage. Lots of it.

We talked about 2018 earlier when Brooks Koepka won at 1-over par. That was the week the greens were mowed extremely short, the wind was blowing, and there hadn’t been meaningful rainfall for months leading into the championship. Conditions became so severe that officials were watering greens during rounds because players simply couldn’t keep the ball on some of these surfaces.

Even the 157-yard par 3 11th became nearly impossible to hold when the wind picked up.

That’s what makes Shinnecock so fascinating. Even if you play perfectly, the course is still going to take its shots. It’s going to bully you. There are no real bailout areas.

The fairways are generous by U.S. Open standards. Rory McIlroy said during a scouting trip that if you miss these fairways and find the five-inch fescue, you probably deserve to be there because the landing areas are relatively wide. At the same time, he acknowledged that hitting those fairways consistently is far from easy, and any miss becomes incredibly costly.

Once you’re in the rough, holding these firm, elevated greens becomes even more difficult. And even from the fairway, players are often aiming for very small landing zones just to give themselves a reasonable chance at two-putting.

That’s why birdie percentage isn’t the statistic I’m focusing on this week. This tournament is about bogey avoidance. Double-bogey avoidance. Scrambling. Survival.

Can you survive Shinnecock? Nobody conquers Shinnecock Hills.

In my opinion, this is the toughest course in the U.S. Open rotation, and the U.S. Open already features the most demanding collection of championship venues in golf. That’s why this is one of my favorite weeks on the calendar.

You have the toughest course, the best players in the world, and four days of watching even elite golfers get pushed to their limits. By Sunday evening, one player will finally emerge from the chaos and earn the right to lift that massive trophy. I can’t wait.

One of the biggest storylines will be green speeds. Tournament officials are reportedly targeting around 12 on the Stimpmeter. If Thursday’s forecasted winds of 20-30 mph materialize, that may be difficult to maintain. Rory suggested that 11 would be about as fast as he’d want to see the greens under those conditions.

As the winds calm later in the week, though, it’s possible the speeds increase. In a perfect world, we might even see conditions approach what players faced in 2018. For me, that’s part of the entertainment.

Watching the best players in the world face a golf course that refuses to cooperate is compelling because it reminds everyone just how difficult this game really is. These players make golf look easy almost every week. They’re operating at a level most golfers can barely comprehend.

At Shinnecock, even the game’s biggest stars can look vulnerable. And that’s what makes the U.S. Open special.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

It’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week, brought to you by Hard Rock Bet.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Bet

My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Patrick Reed at 49-1.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s U.S. Open Picks

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Patrick Reed (+4900)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+2150)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2400)
• Tyrrell Hatton (+4700)
• Cameron Smith (+15000)

Bo McBrayer’s Best Bet

My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week is Hideki Matsuyama at 67-1. I couldn’t believe this price.

Bo McBrayer’s U.S. Open Picks

• Hard Rock Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama (+6700)
• Rory McIlroy (+970)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2400)
• Justin Thomas (+4600)
• Kurt Kitayama (+7200)
• Dustin Johnson (+17500)
• Carlos Ortiz (+29000)

And that’s going to do it for this week’s BettingPros PGA Podcast.

Please join us again next week for our preview of the Travelers Championship, a Signature Event.

Until then, so long, everyone.