MLB Home Run Picks Today: Expert HR Predictions for Monday (June 15)

Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 15 on Hard Rock Bet. We’ve got a clean slate weather-wise and some excellent power matchups to kick off the week. Let’s dive into today’s top home run predictions!

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 15

• Mike Trout +325 (Angels at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)

• Junior Caminero +240 (Rays at Dodgers – Dodger Stadium – 10:10 p.m. ET)

• James Wood +375 (Royals at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Mike Trout

We’ll start at Chase Field, where the Angels visit the Diamondbacks for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch in a nice, controlled hitting environment. Mike Trout is in a bit of a slump this month, but if you zoom out, he’s hit 12 home runs and eight doubles in 192 at-bats against right-handed pitching this year. That’ll certainly play in tonight’s matchup against Ryne Nelson.

Nelson has been very disappointing this season after raising expectations with a strong second half in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in just the 7th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed, the 15th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. When hitters make contact against him, it’s loud.

According to AddMoreFunds, Trout has actually been unlucky from a power standpoint, sporting a .228 ISO compared to a .313 expected ISO versus right-handed pitching this season.

Nelson is also extremely predictable, throwing his fastball well over 50% of the time to both righties and lefties. That plays right into Trout’s hands. His expected ISO against right-handed fastballs is well above his actual mark, signaling more power is coming.

Great park, great matchup, and a healthy Trout who remains one of the most talented hitters in baseball, with the underlying metrics in agreement.

MLB Home Run Pick: Junior Caminero

Next, we’ll head to Dodger Stadium for a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Rays visit the Dodgers. I’m targeting Junior Caminero at +240 to go deep tonight.

The Dodgers are projected to send out Eric Lauer, who was about a league-average arm in 2025 but has been miserable in 2026. Lauer has had extreme issues keeping the ball on the ground, ranking in just the third percentile in ground-ball rate while giving up an 11%-plus barrel rate.

Right-handed hitters have already taken him deep 11 times this season, and he’s surrendered 15 home runs overall. Lauer carries a hefty .242 expected ISO against right-handed bats.

Caminero is obviously one of the premier power bats in the game. His expected ISO sits at a very solid .200 against left-handed pitching this year, and he just broke out of a brief slump with a home run on Sunday against the Angels.

Overall, Caminero already has 15 home runs in 2026 and an .858 OPS, so I’m not concerned about a slow start to June. This is a great time to continue bucking that trend in a fantastic matchup. He’s priced like an elite matchup because it is one, and I’m up for it.

Home Run Pick: James Wood

We’ll close at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., for a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Royals come to town. Mitch Spence is projected to start for the Royals after making his 2026 MLB debut back in April — a disgusting outing in which he gave up six earned runs, and he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since.

Some quick history on Spence: he pitched for the Athletics the last two seasons, carries a career 4.91 ERA, and is no stranger to the long ball, having allowed 37 career home runs in just 32 starts.

I’m also bucking my own trend of targeting slumping hitters here, because James Wood has been on an absolutely scorching heater this summer. Wood is a true superstar who ranks in the 90th percentile or better in pretty much everything that matters — hard-hit rate, barrel rate, bat speed, and expected slugging percentage.

The Nats’ star already has 20 home runs this season with a .558 slugging percentage. Temperatures should be in the mid-to-high 70s in the nation’s capital today, and I really couldn’t ask for a much better matchup for Wood to go yard. For some reason, he’s priced at +375 when his number should be closer to 2-to-1, so we’re getting some real value here.

MLB Home Run Notes for Monday (6/15)

A few more things worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:

• Good weather: Knock on wood, there don’t appear to be any weather issues on Monday’s slate — a welcome change from the delay and postponement risks we’ve dealt with the past couple of weeks.

• Wrigley Field: According to meteorologist Kevin Roth via the Prop Finder app, there’s a nice little bump for hitters at Wrigley today with wind blowing out for the Cubs vs. Rockies game. I don’t hate targeting some bats there as well.

• Athletics back home: The A’s are finally done with their wild series in Nevada, where we saw plenty of fireworks. Returning to Sutter Health Park is a slight downtick by comparison, but it’s still a tremendous spot — temperatures pushing 90 degrees with wind blowing out in Sacramento as they host the Pirates today at another Minor League park.

Good luck on Monday!