Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 19 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. There are a few hitters in excellent matchups and weather spots today. Let’s dive into the best home run bets for today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, June 19
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Ben Rice +260 (Reds at Yankees – Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
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Jo Adell +275 (Angels at Athletics – Sutter Health Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)
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Bryan Reynolds +325 (Pirates at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ben Rice
We’ll start at Yankee Stadium, where the Reds visit the Yankees for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. It goes without saying that Ben Rice is having a phenomenal year — a true breakout superstar season — and tonight’s matchup against Rhett Lowder is fantastic.
Lowder looks like a strong negative regression candidate. He’s allowing just a .158 ISO to left-handed hitters, but his expected ISO sits all the way up at .227, meaning he’s been getting pretty lucky in terms of yielding power to lefties. That luck is due to run out.
No matter how you slice it, Rice has been unbelievable. He’s posting a .355 ISO with 15 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. Additionally, Rice is slugging .645 against righties and ranks in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.
Temperatures in the Bronx should be around 80 degrees, and a nice breeze should be blowing out to right-center field directly toward that short porch (according to Kevin Roth’s weather forecast on PropFinder). That’s directly in Rice’s wheelhouse. At +260 on Hard Rock Bet Soportsbook, he’s my favorite MLB home run pick for Friday.
MLB Home Run Pick: Jo Adell
Next, we’ll head to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, where the Athletics host the Angels for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. I’m targeting Jo Adell to go deep tonight against lefty Jeffrey Springs.
Springs has allowed a .233 ISO to right-handed hitters this season and throws his fastball nearly 45% of the time, making him fairly predictable. He’s also doing a poor job keeping the ball on the ground, ranking in just the 21st percentile in ground-ball rate while getting barreled at roughly a 9.5% clip. That’s a bad combination for him tonight.
Adell is an ideal matchup fit. He owns a .279 expected ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and dating back to 2025, he has a massive .407 ISO against left-handed fastballs — albeit in a slightly small sample. The 27-year-old has six home runs in 85 at-bats with a .529 slugging against southpaws this season and 10 homers overall.
Adell is the definition of a post-hype breakout. There was a ton of buzz around him as a prospect, but he only managed 18 home runs across his first four seasons. However, he’s now hit 67 bombs dating back to the beginning of 2024.
Sutter Health Park doesn’t quite match the insane hitting environment of last week’s Nevada experiment. Still, the tiny dimensions help, and temperatures should be in the mid-70s with a nice breeze blowing directly out to the outfield.
Home Run Pick: Bryan Reynolds
We’ll close at Coors Field, where the Rockies host the Pirates for an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Bryan Reynolds at +325 is my final play of the night.
Kyle Freeland toes the rubber for Colorado, and he’s getting absolutely hammered this season. He ranks in just the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 7th percentile in average exit velocity, while keeping the ball on the ground at a well-below-average clip.
It’s been horrific across the board for Freeland. His home ERA sits at 7.50, but even on the road away from Coors, he’s over 8.00. Father Time catches up to everybody, and even last season, he was a slightly below-average arm with a 4.37 ERA away from Coors. This year, he’s just getting hit everywhere.
Reynolds is the lone switch-hitter in the Pirates’ projected lineup. Dating back to the beginning of last season, he has a .210 ISO against left-handed pitching, and that number jumps even higher in this year’s smaller sample.
He’s having a strong 2026 with 10 home runs and a .472 slugging percentage, his highest mark dating back to 2024. He also ranks highly in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate — all qualities that play extremely well at Coors against a lefty who can’t keep the ball down.
Temperatures at Coors Field are projected in the mid-80s, which certainly helps Reynolds’ case tonight.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, June 19
A few more things to keep in mind for your MLB home run bets today:
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Wrigley Field has the afternoon game, and there’s a strong breeze blowing in — a definite downgrade for batters, so temper expectations there.
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Atlanta could see a bit of weather as the Braves host the Brewers at Truist Park, but as of now, the game doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy.
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Bullpen alert: All three of our targets tonight also benefit from terrible bullpens behind the starters. The Rockies’ bullpen is tied for third in home runs allowed this season and owns the worst bullpen ERA in baseball. The Reds have the third-worst bullpen ERA and have given up just one fewer home run than the Rox. The Athletics’ bullpen ranks fourth-worst in ERA. These bets are far from dead when the starters get yanked.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets to end the week!
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