The USMNT has done everything you would have asked for up to this point in the tournament.

They’re through. They’re healthy. They’re positioned for a favorable draw. And they’ve already accomplished things that no US men’s team has accomplished in a World Cup in decades.

The Best Start in Decades

In the last 75 years of the World Cup, the United States had never won two games in a single tournament.

They already have.

In the last 75 years, the United States had never scored four goals in a World Cup game.

They did it in their first game.

In the last 75 years, the United States had never beaten an opponent by more than two goals.

They did it in their first game.

And in the last 75 years, the United States had never had a positive goal differential in a World Cup tournament.

They’re plus-five right now.

What’s even more impressive is they’ve done it with the guy who’s supposed to be their best player, Christian Pulisic, only playing one half so far.

Now they get to rest everyone and not worry about yellow cards in the final group stage game.

There is some confusion on the yellow card situation, so let me explain it quickly:

While yellow card accumulation does not carry over from the group stage to the knockout round, suspensions do. If you pick up two yellow cards during the group stage, that suspension carries over.

So anyone sitting on one yellow card after the first two group-stage games who gets another yellow in the third game is suspended for the Round of 32.

That means Mauricio Pochettino, who’s done a brilliant job, can sit everyone carrying a yellow card, can sit Pulisic one more game, and get everything ready for July 1.

Why the USMNT Is So Well Positioned

In all likelihood, the United States is going to play Bosnia in the Round of 32, and they’ll be a big favorite in that matchup.

The only way that changes is if Qatar beats Bosnia. In that case, the U.S. would play Qatar, which would be even better.

And I know nobody likes chalky bets, but the U.S. to advance to the Round of 16 at -275 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is worth a look.

If they’re playing Bosnia, they’ll probably be around -275 anyway. If they’re playing Qatar, they’ll probably be closer to -375.

So if you were going to bet it, now would be the time.

Nick’s Pick: USMNT to Advance to the Round of 16 (-275)

What Comes Next for the USMNT

This has been the goal all along: make the quarterfinals for just the second time in U.S. men’s World Cup history and then see what happens.

Their most likely Round of 16 opponent is no longer Belgium – it’s Egypt.

And as great as Mo Salah is, the United States would be the favorite in that matchup.

Now, this is where you can be excited about the U.S. without getting ahead of yourself.

If they make the quarterfinals, they would almost assuredly be playing Spain, one of the favorites entering the tournament.

If they were to win that game, they’d then almost assuredly get France or Germany in the semifinals.

So yes, it gets incredibly difficult. That’s why true underdogs almost never win this tournament.

But getting to the final eight and doing it in the fashion they’ve done would be a massive accomplishment.

Looking at the Rest of the Bracket

On the top-right side of the bracket, we’re probably going to get Brazil against Japan in the Round of 32, with the winner facing either Ivory Coast or Norway.

The way Norway is playing, Brazil vs. Norway in the Round of 16 feels likely. I’d favor Brazil, but that would be a great match.

Mexico has already advanced and will almost certainly play Scotland in its first knockout-round match.

They’ll be slight favorites there, but then they’d likely run into England in the Round of 16, and that’s probably where their tournament ends.

Argentina is probably headed toward a matchup with one of the stories of the tournament, Cape Verde, in the Round of 32 before likely seeing a disappointing Belgium side in the Round of 16.

On the bottom-right side of the bracket, Canada is likely looking at Algeria, though a number of third-place teams could still end up there. Portugal is waiting on the other side.

Nick Wright’s Quarterfinal Predictions

The bracket isn’t finalized yet, but I’ll go ahead and predict the final eight teams.

I believe we’re going to get:

• United States
• Spain
• Netherlands
• France
• Brazil
• England
• Argentina
• Portugal

The toughest call there is France vs. Germany in the Round of 16. I’ll take France.

If everything holds, I’d have France beating the Netherlands and Spain beating the United States.

That would set up a France-Spain semifinal, and I’d take France to make a third straight World Cup final.

On the other side, I’d take Brazil over England and Argentina over Portugal.

And honestly, how good would Argentina vs. Portugal be? Messi vs. Ronaldo with a trip to the semifinals on the line.

Nick Wright’s World Cup Winner Pick

I’m sticking with the pick I made before the tournament started: Brazil (+575).

I think Brazil beats Argentina.

I think Brazil beats France.

And I think Brazil wins the World Cup.

Big upsets over the next few days could completely change the bracket.

But if they don’t, that’s how I see this tournament playing out from here.

This World Cup has been unbelievable so far, and if the bracket falls the way I think it will, the best matches are still ahead.

Nick’s Pick: Brazil to win the World Cup (+575)

Welcome back to What’s Wright? with Nick Wright. With the NCAA Tournament down to its last four teams, it’s time to take a closer look at what’s ahead in Indianapolis.

Today, I’m breaking down each matchup and giving out my best bets for the weekend, including where I see value on the board.

UConn-Illinois & Arizona-Michigan

I think these are both going to be outstanding games.

The bright side of having no Cinderella is you typically get unbelievable quarterfinal matchups. Obviously, UConn-Duke was an all-time game, and we should get an exceptional semifinal.

But I would be rolling with both underdogs on this one, and they’re both tiny.

Nick Wright’s NCAA Tournament Semifinals Picks

Arizona +1.5 and UConn +1.5 would be my two picks.

I’m a Syracuse guy. I didn’t love Jim Calhoun. I don’t love Dan Hurley, but I respect him. What he has built and what they have done is remarkable.

And even though my pick to win the NCAA Tournament was Houston, I think Arizona’s been the best team all year.

My wife is on Michigan, but I like Arizona +1.5 and UConn +1.5.

Welcome in to Episode 438 of What’s Right with Nick Wright.

It is our now time for our NFC “way too early, we are not being tied or held to these takes” over/under win totals show.

And some major news could change things, because maybe one of these teams is going to trade for Myles Garrett. The Browns did some interesting accounting in changing Garrett’s contract in a way that doesn’t really do anything other than make him more tradable from a salary cap perspective.

Let’s get into it.

NFC East Win Totals

First, we’ve got the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys – 8.5 wins: Too Low

The Dallas Cowboys are set at 8.5 wins. It’s -135 on the over, +110 on the under. So, a little juice on the over.

The whole NFC East gets the AFC South and NFC West. Not easy. AFC South, I think, is median difficulty. NFC West is very tough.

Dallas’s strength of schedule games, however, I think are pretty unlucky.

This is because they have the second-place schedule, which means they draw Tampa instead of Carolina, Baltimore instead of Pittsburgh, and Green Bay instead of Chicago. Now, I think Chicago might be better than Green Bay, but you could argue those are the three toughest teams in those divisions – they draw them all.

But I still think this is too low.

I think the Cowboys are going to draft two defensive players in the first round. I think their offense is excellent. I thought Schottenheimer did a good job last year, and I don’t think the rest of the division is too great.

Dallas is my preseason lean for divisional winner. I think Dallas wins 11 games. I don’t think there’s any awful team and I don’t think there’s any great team in the East, so I like Dallas in that spot.

New York Giants – 7.5 wins: Just Wright

The Giants are set at 7.5 wins, -110 on both sides.

They also get the AFC South and NFC West, and their strength of schedule games are Cleveland and New Orleans along with every last-place team.

You get a last-place schedule, plus you go from the coaching issues they had to John Harbaugh, hopefully Jaxson Dart a little more in control, and Malik Nabers coming back from injury. All of that plus a top-five draft pick.

I think this win total is just right.

If it were 6.5, I’d say over. At 7.5, this is a seven or eight-win team, which would be an awesome year for the Giants. I don’t believe in the offensive infrastructure enough for worst-to-first, but I do like Harbaugh bringing structure.

Philadelphia Eagles – 10.5 wins: Too High

Philly is set at 10.5 wins, +105 on the over, -125 on the under.

They have the first-place schedule, but it actually seems easier than Dallas’s. Their strength of schedule games are Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago.

This is an under to me.

I think Sirianni enters the year on one of the hottest seats in the league. I think they’re going to have to trade A.J. Brown, and they won’t get any benefit from that this year.

There’s aging and uncertainty on the offensive line, plus defensive losses. Could they make the playoffs? Sure. Could they win 10 games? Maybe.

But I think they’re more likely to win nine than 12. At 10.5, I’ll go under.

Washington Commanders – 7.5 wins: Too High

Commanders are set at 7.5 wins, -110 on both sides.

Their strength of schedule games are Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Minnesota.

This is an under.

I don’t think they have the defensive personnel, and I don’t know that they’re going to be able to protect Jayden Daniels. My concerns about his durability are well established.

I think we’re going to look back on their NFC title game run as one of the more fluky ones in recent memory – so many last-minute wins, including a Hail Mary.

My preseason prediction: Commanders finish last. I think it’s Dallas, Philly, Giants, Commanders.

NFC North Win Totals

Now for the NFC North.

Chicago Bears – 9.5 wins: Too Low

The Bears are currently at 9.5 wins, -105 on the over, -115 on the under.

This division gets the AFC East and NFC South, which is the best draw you can get.

Even with tougher strength of schedule games – Jacksonville, Philly, Seattle – I think they’re being disrespected. It’s the third-highest total in their own division.

I think they find a way to 10 wins. Caleb in year two with Ben Johnson, plus improvements on defense – I lean over.

Detroit Lions – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

The Lions are at 10.5 wins, -125 on the over, +105 on the under.

Their schedule is favorable thanks to the last-place finish, but I worry about the offensive line, how they finished last year, and whether they have a consistent pass rush outside of Hutchinson.

This feels just right.

Green Bay Packers – 10.5 wins: Too High

Packers are at 10.5 wins, +100 on the over, -120 on the under.

Their strength of schedule is tough – Houston, Dallas, Rams – and I’m not sure what to expect early with Micah’s recovery timeline.

I’d lean under.

Minnesota Vikings – 8.5 wins: Too High

Vikings are at 8.5 wins, +110 on the over, -135 on the under.

This is a fade-the-public play. There’s too much hype, and the quarterback situation is strange.

I’ll go under.

NFC South Win Totals

Next up, the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons – 7.5 wins: Too High

Falcons are at 7.5 wins, +105 on the over, -125 on the under.

They draw the AFC North and NFC North, and their strength of schedule games include Kansas City and San Francisco.

I’ll go under.

Carolina Panthers – 6.5 wins: Too Low

Panthers are at 6.5 wins, -150 on the over, +125 on the under.

Their strength of schedule is tough, but 6.5 wins for a defending division champion returning its quarterback and coach is a slap in the face.

I don’t love it, but I’ll go over.

New Orleans Saints – 7.5 wins: Too High

Saints are at 7.5 wins, -120 on the over, -105 on the under.

Even with a favorable schedule, I think they’re still pulling themselves out of the abyss.

I don’t think they get to eight wins – under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.5 wins: Too Low

Tampa is at 8.5 wins, -115 on the over, -105 on the under.

I can’t quit Baker. I think they’re going to win the division. I like them at +160 to win it.

They need better defense, but I like their run game and expect a bounce-back year.

NFC West Win Totals

Wrapping up with the NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals – 4.5 wins: Too High

Cardinals are at 4.5 wins, +110 on the over, -135 on the under.

I think Arizona’s got the makings of the worst team in their conference. The quarterback room is rough, the schedule is brutal, and I feel like they’ve got 0-6 in the division written all over them – they could end up winning one game.

Los Angeles Rams – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Rams are at 10.5 wins, -160 on the over, +130 on the under.

If Stafford’s healthy, they’re positioned to be the best team in the league, and I love that they addressed their biggest weakness in the secondary.

I still think they’re a 13-win team. That’s an over.

San Francisco 49ers – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

49ers are at 10.5 wins, +125 on the over, -150 on the under.

I think that number is just right. It’s a brutal division, but the schedule is pretty nice.

I’d stay away from it.

Seattle Seahawks – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Seahawks are at 10.5 wins, -135 on the over, +110 on the under.

Their schedule isn’t brutal for a first-place team, and I think they can get to 11 wins.

I don’t think they hit last year’s peak, but I still like them to go over.

Nick Wright’s NFC Win Totals Recap

Here are all of my NFC win total leans, in review:

Overs:

• Dallas o8.5
• Chicago o9.5
• Carolina o6.5
• Tampa o8.5
• LA Rams o10.5
• Seattle o10.5

Unders:

• Philly u10.5
• Washington u7.5
• Green Bay u10.5
• Minnesota u8.5
• Atlanta u7.5
• Saints u7.5
• Cardinals u4.5

Just Wright:

• Giants 7.5
• Lions 10.5
• 49ers 10.5

It’s the time of year when the stakes rise, the margins shrink, and every possession feels like it could swing a season. With the Men’s NCAA tournament field trimmed down to just sixteen, and the spotlight getting brighter, it’s time to double down.

Let’s start with Houston.

I liked Houston coming into the tournament, and nothing through the first two rounds has changed that. In fact, it’s only strengthened my position. Houston handled its opening games with authority—no drama, no late scares, just control from tip to final buzzer. That matters this time of year.

Now add in the path.

One of the reasons Houston stood out early was the perceived vulnerability at the top of its region. That concern has already proven valid, with Florida going down to Iowa. And then there’s the hidden edge: location. Houston will essentially be playing in its own backyard, with games hosted in the city of Houston. That’s not just a slight advantage—that’s a real, tangible boost in a tournament setting.

• Nick’s Pick: Houston – South Region Winner +110

Then there’s St. John’s.

I’ve been consistent here, too. I picked them to make a deep run, and I’m not backing off now. Getting points against Duke only makes it more appealing.

Duke may still carry the brand, but the performance hasn’t matched it. Through two games, I see only brief flashes of high-level play—maybe 15 good minutes total. That’s not the profile of a team you trust when the competition stiffens.

St. John’s, on the other hand, brings defense, discipline, and strong coaching—three things that tend to travel well in March. I believe they can win outright on the moneyline, but even if they don’t, the number feels too big at 6.5.

But if you believe in the team—and I do—you take the points.

• Nick’s Pick: St. John’s +6.5

Nick Wright’s Last 16 Picks

• Houston to win its region (+110)
• St. John’s +6.5 vs. Duke

Same philosophy, same confidence. Survive and advance—but more importantly, bet with conviction.

It’s never too early to talk NFL betting. The season-long team over/unders are already available on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook – and while the draft hasn’t even happened yet, this is where I’m leaning at the moment. Let’s get into it, starting first with the AFC.

I’ll be evaluating each line as too high, too low, or… just wright.

AFC East Over/Unders

First, we’ve got the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills – 10.5 wins: Too Low

The Buffalo Bills are set at 10.5 wins. So they’re slightly favored to the Over.

This is what’s important to remember: for every team we talk about in the AFC East, they will play the AFC West and the NFC North. Which means the AFC East got the nut low divisional draw. They got, in my opinion, the hardest division to play in the AFC and probably the hardest or second hardest division to play in the NFC.

Buffalo has all of their own division, plus the AFC West and NFC North, plus these strength-of-schedule games. They get the second-place team from the AFC North—that’s Baltimore. That kind of really sucks. It’s like, we get the second-place team from the North, but it’s Baltimore.

They get the second-place team from the South—that’s Houston. That’s pretty unfortunate. And the second-place team from the NFC West, which is the Rams.

That is brutal. They drew tough divisions, but they get lucky with the division they’re in at least.

Those three divisions they get the second-place team from are, I think a lot of people believe, the best teams in those divisions. That Baltimore is better than Pittsburgh, that Houston is better than Jacksonville, and that the Rams are better than the Seahawks.

With all of that, for Buffalo, I will take the Over because this is the most important thing: six games in their own division means they’ll likely go 2-0 against Miami, 2-0 against the Jets, and split with New England. If they go 5-1 there, can they go 6-5 in their remaining games?

And on the road against Denver, Green Bay, Vegas, Minnesota, Houston, and the Rams. Again, it’s a brutal schedule outside of the division, but they win 11 games every year with Josh Allen. To me, this is a touch too low.

Miami Dolphins – 4.5 wins: Too High

Miami Dolphins at 4.5 wins.

Again, same divisions—AFC West and NFC North. Their strength-of-schedule games are the Bengals, the Colts, and the Niners. Not a murderous row, but not a cakewalk.

Their total is at 4.5, and I’m here to tell you that’s too high. They are going to be the worst team in the league by a lot. I would be on two-win watch for the Miami Dolphins. That strikes me as too high.

We don’t need to spend more time on them. It’s too high.

New England Patriots – 9.5 wins: Too High

The New England Patriots at 9.5 wins

A touch too high.

I think the Patriots come way back down to earth—from the easiest schedule in the NFL this century to the AFC West, NFC North, plus Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Seattle.

I think they’re a nine-win team. You could say that means it’s just right, but I think it’s more likely they win eight than they win 11. So I think that’s too high.

New York Jets: Just Wright

Jets at 5.5 wins.

I’m going to say just right, but if I had to pick a side, I would go Over.

They have two games against the Dolphins, and games against the Raiders, the Browns, the Titans, and the Cardinals. That’s six games against the worst teams in football.

Now, they are also one of the worst teams in football—I understand that. But if they can just steal a couple, if they can go 2-10 or 2-9 against good teams and then 4-2 against the worst teams, I could see them getting to the Over.

It’s probably just right, but if I had to, I would go Over.

And I love Buffalo at -145 to win the division. I love it.

AFC North Over/Unders

Let’s go to the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens – 10.5 wins: Just Wright

The Ravens are at 10.5 wins.

They’re in a very different position than the AFC East. Everyone in their division plays their own division plus the AFC South and NFC South. The NFC South is the worst division in football every year.

Baltimore also gets a second-place schedule: Chargers, Bills, and Cowboys. Tough, not brutal.

I think this is just right. If I had to pick, I’d go Over—bolstered by the fact that their schedule is smooth.

I think their division is soft all of a sudden. Pittsburgh without Tomlin and with a 42-year-old Rodgers, Cleveland in perpetual hell, and I don’t really believe in Cincinnati.

My concern is they lost more than they brought in, and I don’t love the lack of weapons for Lamar. But historically, Lamar fresh off a contract dominates – and I’m assuming he’s getting a new deal.

Cincinnati Bengals – 9.5 wins: Just Wright

Bengals at 9.5 wins.

I think this is just right. They’re the same team every year—awesome offense, shaky offensive line, terrible defense. I don’t trust the organization to win 12 games.

Cleveland Browns – 6.5 wins: Just Wright

Next, Browns at 6.5 wins.

Their strength-of-schedule games are Raiders, Jets, and Giants. That’s pretty sick.

I’m going to call this just right. I don’t have the courage to pick a Browns Over, but they could be frisky.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5 wins: Too High

Next, Steelers at 8.5 wins.

I’m going Under. I think they will miss Tomlin. This whole Aaron Rodgers situation is a mess.

To me, this is too high. I would go Under on Pittsburgh.

And I like Baltimore at -140 to win the division.

AFC South Over/Unders

Moving on to the South.

Houston Texans – 9.5 wins: Too High

Houston Texans at 9.5 wins.

I think this is too high. I’m worried about C.J. Stroud, and it’s hard for a defense to be that dominant year over year. This would be an Under.

Indianapolis Colts – 8.5 wins: Too High

Colts at 8.5 wins.

Too high. I didn’t believe in them last year, and I don’t believe in them this year, and are we forgetting Daniel Jones tore his achilles?

Jacksonville Jaguars – 9.5 wins: Too Low

Jaguars at 9.5 wins.

I believe in the Jags. Year two of Liam Coen, Trevor feeling good—I think they’re a double-digit win team. That’s too low.

Tennessee Titans – 6.5 wins: Just Wright

Titans at 6.5 wins.

Feels just right. Six or seven wins. That checks out.

Houston is the favorite to win the division, but I like Jacksonville at +175.

AFC West Over/Unders

Now to my division, the AFC West.

Denver Broncos – 9.5 wins: Too Low

Denver Broncos at 9.5 wins.

I think this is a touch low. They brought everyone back, and Bo Nix looked awesome in the playoffs. They won 14 last year—they could drop by four wins and still hit the Over.

Kansas City Chiefs – 10.5 wins: Too Low

Chiefs at 10.5 wins.

That is too low. They still get a lot of favorable games. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs. That’s an Over for me, and you get plus money.

Las Vegas Raiders – 5.5 wins: Just Wright

Raiders at 5.5 wins.

Feels just right, but I would lean Over.

Los Angeles Chargers – 10.5 wins: Too High

Chargers at 10.5 wins.

This is a red-hot Under for me. Their schedule is brutal, and I don’t think they’re going to be as good as people expect.

Nick Wright’s 2026 AFC Division Winner Picks

So my division picks:

• AFC West: Chiefs
• AFC East: Bills
• AFC North: Ravens
• AFC South: Jaguars

A little chalky, but that’s how it goes this time of year. We’ll see how the draft changes things. Talk to you guys next week.

Alright, it’s time for a special March Madness edition of Nick’s Picks, brought to you by Hard Rock Bet. I’ve got two NCAA Tournament picks for you guys.

 

Houston Gets Revenge

First, we’ve got Houston. I went down this road last year, and they lost. I picked Houston to get to the Final Four. I don’t believe I picked them to win the championship, but Houston with Kelvin Sampson got all the way to the final against Florida, had the ball, a chance to win it – didn’t get a shot up. Kind of a tragic loss.

It’s a different type of gut punch, but it reminded me of Virginia when, as a No. 1 seed and one of the favorites to win the tournament, they became the first 1 seed ever to lose to a 16 seed. Then, the very next year, they responded to that stomach punch by winning the championship.

I think Houston and Kelvin Sampson finally break through. They’re +900 to win it all. They have the huge bonus of clearly having the easiest No. 1 seed to deal with in their region. That would be Florida – it’d be a rematch of the title game. If they get there, their Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games would be in Houston, so they would have home games to get to the Final Four.

Nick’s Pick: Houston to win it all (+900)

Arizona Out of the West

And the other pick that I’m going to give out is, I think, the best all-around team in the country – and certainly the healthiest of the three big favorites: Arizona, Duke, and Michigan. Arizona is the healthiest.

Nick’s Pick: Arizona to Make the Final Four (-155)

This is our final NFL gambling show of the 2025 season. It’s our Super Bowl prop show, and we’ll also have our final game pick of the year for the Super Bowl. So let’s get right to it.

It’s time for Nick’s Picks, presented by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl Game Pick

Alright – this postseason, I haven’t been great. Damonza has been exceptional. My postseason record is 4-8. Damonza’s postseason record is 8-4.

For the Super Bowl, I am laying the points with Seattle -4.5 against New England. I believe this is a 27-17 Seahawks victory. Not an easy win, but semi-comfortable – Seattle maybe leads 24-14 entering the fourth quarter and hangs on.

Sam Darnold has been a covering machine the last two years: 25-11 against the spread. In his career as a 4-point favorite or more, he’s 11-5 ATS and 15-1 straight up. As we discussed on yesterday’s show, Mike Macdonald’s defense has historically given young quarterbacks a ton of trouble – especially the first time they face him.

I think the Patriots offensive line is in rough shape compared to the Seahawks’ defensive line.

Now, we did get word that Seahawks rookie do-it-all safety Nick Emmanwori suffered an ankle injury. I don’t like that – he’s an important chess piece – but I’ve got to imagine the Toradol will be flowing freely before the Super Bowl. It’s not enough to move me off the pick.

Nick’s Pick: Seahawks -4.5

Damonza’s Super Bowl Game Pick

I’m taking New England plus the points. I think Seattle jumps on them early, but it ends up being close. Vrabel can coach them into a competitive game. I think the Patriots lose the game, but cover the spread.

Nick did note how rare it is for favorites to win but not cover, referencing Rams-Bengals from a few years ago, and warned against correlated parlays like Seattle ML + Patriots cover.

However, sharp money favors Seattle to win and New England to cover.

Damonza’s Pick: Patriots +4.5

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl Prop Bets

I’ve got a lot of props for this one. Let’s begin with anytime touchdown scorers.

Anytime Touchdowns

I’m targeting three players to find the end zone: two Seahawks and one Patriot:

Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-200)

I’d be stunned if Kenneth Walker doesn’t score. The -200 price tells you Vegas agrees. I think he’s going to be the focal point near the goal line, and if Seattle is playing from ahead like I think they are, that’s where he’s going to get his opportunities. I’m not doing the 2+ touchdowns at +260, but one touchdown feels extremely likely.

Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+260)

In the red zone, all the attention that’s going to be demanded by Jaxon Smith-Njigba could open things up for Cooper Kupp. I don’t think Kupp is going to be the main target between the 20s, but I do think there’s value here if Seattle gets into the red zone and the defense is tilted elsewhere.

Drake Maye Anytime TD (+275)

Here’s why I like this one so much. If there is any pass interference or defensive holding in the end zone that places the ball at the one, the Patriots are going to run a quarterback sneak. Drake Maye has been excellent this postseason with running the football. The one place Seattle’s defense is really susceptible is with quarterback scrambles. I think Drake is going to be under duress and running the football, whether that’s a scramble, a designed run, or a sneak. At +275, I really like it.

Quarterback Props

Now onto the passing props:

Sam Darnold Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I think Darnold’s going to have a good game. I think the Patriots’ run defense is stiff enough that they’ll slow down Kenneth Walker, and Seattle is going to have to succeed through the air. I think Darnold ends up around 245 passing yards. He’s coming off the best game of his career in the biggest spot, and I’m willing to give him credit for that.

Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-160)

If I think the Patriots are going to score fewer than 21 points, and I think Drake Maye can run one in, there’s just not enough room for multiple passing touchdowns. I think they’re much more likely to score on the ground than through the air against this Seattle defense. This one’s a little correlated with my other bets, but I’m comfortable with it.

Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Completions (-135)

I also think there’s going to be a lot of Darnold passes. Not necessarily deep passes, but volume. Something like a 24-for-33 type game. If Seattle is throwing this much, he’s going to get plenty of opportunities to clear this number.

Rushing Props

I’ve got four rushing props on the card, none of which involve either team’s running backs:

Rashid Shaheed Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jet sweep. End around. That’s it. That’s the bet.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+275)

This is a tricky one. I don’t think he’s going to be handed the ball. I think one of these guys is going to catch a wide receiver screen or a backward pass that gets ruled a lateral, and if that happens, it goes down as rushing yards. At +275, it’s worth a flyer.

Sam Darnold Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

As long as he doesn’t scramble for more than ten yards, I’m live, because he can lose yards on kneel-downs at the end of the game. It’s certainly on the board that he finishes with zero or even negative rushing yards. That’s what I’m betting on.

Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

That’s a huge number for a quarterback, but I think he’s going to have to run a lot in this game. Seattle is susceptible to quarterback scrambles, and Drake is going to be under pressure. I’m not worried about kneel-downs here. I think he gets into the 45-50 yard range.

Receiving Props

I’m looking at a few under-the-radar wideouts for my receiving props:

Rashid Shaheed Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I’m really betting on one explosive play here. I don’t think he’s going to be a big part of the down-to-down offense, but one catch gets this done.

Pop Douglas Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I just think he’s going to be a bigger part of the game plan. We’ve seen him make big catches in big spots already this postseason.

Mack Hollins Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hollins is coming off injury, and I don’t think he’s going to be a huge part of New England’s offense. This is one of those over/unders that just makes sense to me.

Reception Props

Two running backs and a WR1 caught my eye for receptions:

Kenneth Walker Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)

I think the Patriots’ linebackers have been pretty good covering running backs this year. I think Walker is going to be used more as a blocker and a runner than as a receiver.

TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)

This is directly tied to my under on his receiving yards. I just don’t think he’s going to catch a pass.

Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

I’m not betting his yardage props, but we’ve seen games where Diggs gets volume without production. Five catches for 17 yards. Four catches for 40 yards. I feel more comfortable betting him to catch at least five balls than betting him to hit a yardage number.

Defensive Props

This is where it gets interesting.

DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.5 Sacks (+115)

I think DeMarcus Lawrence is going to put Will Campbell in hell, and once they start cheating protection his way, it opens things up.

Leonard Williams Over 0.5 Sacks (+150)

Drake Maye has taken five sacks in every playoff game. If they slide protection to Lawrence, Williams is going to get opportunities.

Team Totals & Specials

It’s not a true Super Bowl without some specials.

Patriots Under 18.5 Points (+115)

If my score prediction is 27-17, I’ll take the extra point and the plus money.

Most Passing Yards: Sam Darnold (-120)

This just lines up with how I think the game is going to go.

Longest Reception: Rashid Shaheed (+700)

That’s what he was brought in to do. At 7-1, I’ll take the shot.

Longest Successful Field Goal Over 49.5 Yards

Jason Myers is a very good kicker. Andy Borregales has been better from 50+ than he has from 40-49. I think at least one of them makes a long one.

Each Team to Convert a 4th Down (+125)

Vrabel is going to go for fourth-and-shorts, and Seattle will too. It’s almost a coin flip in today’s NFL, and I like the plus money.

Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass (+160)

This is my favorite Super Bowl bet every year. Any trick play, any fake punt, anything like that, and you win. Josh McDaniels loves trick plays. It’s just a fun bet to have action on.

Final Thoughts

I’ve declined my annual octopus bet. Also, my Super Bowl MVP pick would be Sam Darnold, but the odds are too short to bet.

That’s it. Great year of gambling shows. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Nick Wright’s Super Bowl LX Picks & Prop Bets

Anytime Touchdowns

• Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-200)
• Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+260)
• Drake Maye Anytime TD (+275)

Quarterback Props

• Sam Darnold Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
• Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-160)
• Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Completions (-135)

Rushing Props

• Rashid Shaheed Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (+275)
• Sam Darnold Under 6.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
• Drake Maye Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Receiving Props

• Rashid Shaheed Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pop Douglas Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Mack Hollins Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Reception Props

• Kenneth Walker Under 2.5 Receptions (+100)
• TreVeyon Henderson Under 0.5 Receptions (+140)
• Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

Defensive Props

• DeMarcus Lawrence Over 0.5 Sacks (+115)
• Leonard Williams Over 0.5 Sacks (+150)

Team Totals & Specials

• Patriots Under 18.5 Points (+115)
• Most Passing Yards: Sam Darnold (-120)
• Longest Reception: Rashid Shaheed (+700)
• Longest Successful Field Goal Over 49.5 Yards
• Each Team to Convert a 4th Down (+125)
• Over 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass (+160)

Damonza’s Super Bowl LX Picks & Prop Bets

• Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards (+1300)
• Sam Darnold Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-120)
• Stefon Diggs to Catch a Pass on New England’s First Drive (+130)
• Kenneth Walker Anytime TD (-200)
• Seattle 1H -5.5 (+125)
• Gatorade Color: Yellow/Green/Lime (+275)

We are nine days out from the Super Bowl, and today’s show is all about recapping our preseason betting show, because every single one of those bets has now settled. Futures, season win totals, make/miss the playoffs, make/miss the Super Bowl – all of it. We finally know how everything played out.

As always, all lines referenced are from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Nick Wright’s Championship Sunday Picks Recap

Before we get into the season-long recap, let’s start with last week’s picks. As has been the story of this postseason, I did very poorly. Damonza did very well.

• Denver +5.5 against New England was a winner. I had it. So did Damonza.
• Rams +2.5 at Seattle was a loser. I had it. Damonza was on the other side.

Here’s something I didn’t share with you guys. I was watching Patriots-Broncos. The game was tied 7-7, maybe 10-7, and the snow was coming down hard. I live bet under 26.5 because I just didn’t see how we were getting 10 more points. It felt like field goals or maybe one touchdown at most. That one hit.

Then I did something I almost never do. I thought the Rams were going to move the ball at will against Seattle, so I put together a touchdown scorer Same Game Parlay: Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, and Puka Nacua.

In my head, I’m thinking if I’m right on all three of these, the Rams are obviously winning the game. So I also took the Rams moneyline, which turned the whole thing into a 20-to-1 ticket. After the Puka touchdown, I was being offered 6-to-1 on the cashout.

But of course, I’m never cashing out.

Stafford’s incompletion on 4th & 4 was brutal because all my guys had already scored. The Rams scored three touchdowns – just the three guys I picked – and I still lost. That one hurt.

Nick Wright’s NFL Regular Season Betting Recap

In the regular season, I finished dead even at 44-44-2. But with the vig, that means I lost a little money – because we’re honorable on this show.

Season Win Total Overs

Winners:

• Jaguars Over 7.5 (won 13 games – great pick)
• Bears Over 8.5 (won 11-12 games)
• Falcons Over 7.5 (got lucky – started 4-9, won four straight)

Losers:

• Buccaneers Over 9.5 (collapsed late)
• Chiefs Over 11.5 (won six games – brutal)
• Raiders Over 6.5 (they got the No. 1 pick – bad bet)

So: three winners, two dead losers, one unlucky loss.

Season Win Total Unders

Once again, I went 3-3 on unders.

Winners:

• Bengals Under 9.5 (never in doubt)
• Cowboys Under 8.5 (won exactly eight – tie vs. GB saved us)
• Vikings Under 9.5 (stone-cold winner)

Losers:

• Colts Under 7.5 (fell apart late but still beat us)
• Broncos Under 9.5 (No. 1 seed – bad miss)
• 49ers Under 10.5 (won 12; felt unlucky)

I bet the over on an AFC West team that got the No. 1 pick and the under on one that got the No. 1 seed. Not great.

Nick Wright’s NFL Postseason Futures Recap

We did poorly on Make the Playoffs markets, but very well on picking teams to Miss the Playoffs.

Make the Playoffs Bets

• Jaguars +180 (winner)
• Chiefs -380 (disaster)
• Buccaneers -170 (collapse)
• Raiders +340 (half-unit)
• Giants +500 (quarter-unit)

Miss the Playoffs Bets

• Steelers -140 (lost – Ravens Week 18 disaster)
• Broncos +130 (wrong all year)
• Colts -260 (winner)
• Cowboys -210 (winner)
• Vikings +100 (winner)
• Cardinals -140 (winner)

This was my most profitable section, especially with the four-team miss-the-playoffs parlay: Saints, Jets, Browns, Colts. That was a two-unit preseason bet at -135 and it hit.

Nick Wright’s Division Winners & Super Bowl Exactas

This is where my winners end.

Division Winners

• Chiefs to win AFC West (loser)
• Bucs to win NFC South (loser)
• Ravens/Bills division parlay (loser – got lucky missing both individually)

The dumbest bet in hindsight was Chiefs -380 to make the playoffs. If I was already betting them to win the division, that was unnecessary exposure.

Super Bowl Exactas

• Chiefs over Tampa at 55-1
• Chiefs over Tampa at 110-1

I do one unit on each every year, so I basically start the season down two units.

Final Accounting

• Winning Bets: +14.95 units
• Losing Bets: -21.05 units
• Net: -6.1 units

If I remove the Chiefs -380 playoff bet, I finish down 2.3 units, which is basically the expected loss when betting on this many futures.

Not a profitable season. Barely scratched .500. We move on.

Damonza’s NFL Futures Recap

Damonza only placed five preseason futures, all plus money.

• Jaguars to win AFC South +300
• Bengals to lose in Divisional Round +425
• Ravens to win Super Bowl +600
• Bijan Robinson most rushing TDs +800 – unlucky loss
• Joe Burrow most passing yards +450

Four one-unit losses, one three-unit win = -1 unit total. That’s a win when it comes to futures betting.

Nick Wright’s Favorite Super Bowl LX Prop

Now looking ahead to bigger and better things, here’s my favorite prop bet for Super Bowl LX so far:

TreVeyon Henderson Under 3.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

They do not trust him in pass protection. He is not on the field for passing downs:

• Last five games: 2 catches, 7 yards total
• Conference Championship snaps: 4 total, three were rushes
• He had zero targets in his last game

He’s simply not going to be involved in the passing game. The downside is sweating every snap, but the usage just isn’t there.

Nick Wright’s Early Super Bowl 61 Futures

• Chiefs +1500: absolutely betting this
• Seahawks +900: number will get worse, small taste only
• Jaguars +2000: value with roster continuity
• Commanders +6000: long-shot if you believe in Jayden Daniels

The Chiefs having worse odds than half the league is insulting. They’ll be fine.

Last weekend, I got crushed. The NFL playoffs have ruined us, and I have made an executive decision that my season-long record and my playoff record are now separate entities. This is what we call coping, because I’m not doing well. But we move forward.

All lines are from our good friends at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks

There are certain times when it is very clear that one of the conference championship games is going to determine which of the remaining teams is actually the best team. Of the three games remaining, the two best teams aren’t going to be playing in the Super Bowl. They’re playing this weekend. I would be stunned if the winner of this game does not win the Super Bowl.

Seattle has been unbelievable all year. Their defense is awesome. Their coach is awesome. They have home-field advantage. Sam Darnold has earned everyone’s respect, even if he hasn’t earned everyone’s trust.

With that said, Stafford is in such a different tier than Darnold. And McVay, as great as Mike Macdonald is, I think McVay is the second-best coach in the NFL.

I have felt like the Rams are the best NFC team throughout most of the year and the best team overall the last few months. I know what their best game looks like. I’ve seen them play their best defensive game of the season against Seattle when they forced four interceptions. I’ve seen them play their best offensive game of the year against Seattle when Stafford threw for 450 yards.

I believe this is the Rams’ year. I like the Rams +2.5.

Nick’s Pick: Rams +2.5

AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos

Between the shakiness of the Patriots’ offensive line, how loose Drake Maye has been with the football, the crowd noise in Denver, and this being Drake Maye’s first career road playoff game – this is a game that could be played in the teens.

If it’s a game that’s going to be played in the teens and I’m getting 5.5 points with the home team, I’ll take those points.

Stidham only has four career starts. He hasn’t started a game in two years. All of that is horrifying. However, he’s 29 years old, he’s experienced, Sean Payton made it a priority to go get him, and his first career start ever came against a really good Niners team where he put up 300 yards and threw for three touchdowns.

I think Drake Maye is more likely to turn the ball over in this game than Stidham is. I think the Patriots win, but I think the Broncos cover the spread.

I think this is a 17-13, 21-17, 17-14 type of game where New England wins. I’ll take Denver plus the points.

Nick’s Pick: Broncos +5.5

Damonza’s Teaser

This one’s a little weird. This one’s more man-made.

Damonza’s teaser for Championship Sunday includes New England teased up to +2.5, the Rams at +10.5, and the under in the Rams-Seahawks game at 55 points.

Teasers in the playoffs are hard. You don’t have a lot of options here. It’s just a rough one.

Touchdown Genie

Last week, I gave out a three-leg Touchdown Genie parlay of Davante Adams, Josh Allen, and Puka Nacua. Those three guys all did not score a touchdown.

So this week, I’m keeping it simple. Kyren Williams anytime touchdown +125. That’s what I’m going with.

Nick’s Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Enjoy championship weekend. Talk to you guys soon.

This is my favorite NFL weekend of the year. Fewer games, better teams, and no margin for error. Every matchup matters, and every mistake gets punished.

Last week was frustrating. The results weren’t there for me even though I still believe the logic behind most of the picks was sound. Damonza had the better week and now has the edge heading into the rest of the postseason, which makes this slate even more important. We agree on a lot this week, which makes it harder to make up ground, but this is the board we’re playing.

As always, all lines are from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Bills (+1) at Broncos

This is my favorite pick of the weekend.

I understand the concerns about Buffalo being short-handed at wide receiver, but I actually think it forces them into what they do best. With limited options outside, they are going to lean into 12 personnel, and that’s where this offense has thrived all season. They can run the ball, the offensive line is excellent, and the pass defense remains the strength of the team.

Josh Allen is the best quarterback left in the playoffs, and the altitude in Denver does not concern me at all. He played his college home games in Wyoming, at a higher elevation. That is not going to affect him.

I also think we’ve overstated how vulnerable Buffalo really is. They have come back from double-digit deficits multiple times this year. If they fall behind, they have a path forward. If Denver falls behind, I don’t see one.

The Broncos benefited from the second-easiest schedule in the league, and this is a significant step up in class. I don’t think this ends up being close. I think Buffalo controls the game, and I think Bo Nix makes a costly mistake at some point.

49ers (+7) at Seahawks

I expect Seattle to win this game, but I do not expect them to win it comfortably.

Seattle is going to be conservative offensively. They are not going to take unnecessary risks, and they are going to prioritize ball control. That kind of game script naturally compresses margins.

We’ve already seen this matchup twice. Even with San Francisco’s defense banged up, Seattle scored only 13 points in both games. There is something about this matchup that limits Seattle’s offense.

San Francisco is going to try to shorten the game, run the ball, and limit possessions. That makes seven points too many. I don’t think the 49ers win, but I think they stay within the number in a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.

Texans at Patriots (-3)

New England is at home with the far better quarterback.

Houston’s defense is excellent, but the Patriots just faced an elite defensive unit last week and are better prepared for this challenge. Drake Maye also adds an element Houston didn’t have to deal with previously – he can beat you with his legs, and that matters in playoff games.

The Texans are undefeated when they score 20+ points this season, but I don’t think they get there here. This feels like a controlled, disciplined performance from New England rather than anything explosive.

There are injury concerns on both sides, but they largely cancel out. I trust the Patriots more late, and I trust them to win this game by a field goal or slightly more.

Rams (-4) at Bears

I do not trust the Bears defense to slow down the Rams at all.

I know it’s freezing. I know there are trends about home underdogs, dome teams outdoors, and weather games in Chicago. I’m going against all of that. Matt Stafford spent more than a decade playing in the NFC North. He has played in Chicago and Green Bay countless times. The cold-weather narratives around him are mostly fake.

The Rams offense is simply too good, and the Bears losing their starting left tackle is a massive problem in this matchup. This has been a great season for Chicago and a clear step in the right direction, but I think it ends here.

I expect the Rams to score early and keep the pressure on throughout the game.

Bonus CFP Pick: Miami (+8.5) vs Indiana

I’m taking Miami plus the points in Monday’s CFP National Championship, and I’m also taking Miami on the moneyline.

Indiana has been dominant in this playoff, no question. But I think people are overlooking how these teams stack up relative to common opponents. Indiana went toe-to-toe with Ohio State and won a close game. Miami played Ohio State later and controlled the game wire to wire.

The idea that Indiana is in a completely different weight class than Miami right now doesn’t sit right with me. Indiana has looked better in the playoff, but getting more than a touchdown in Miami is too many points.

If this game is close late, I like Miami’s chances.

Damonza’s Teaser

This week, Damonza’s rolling with a three-team, 8-point teaser at +100:

• Seahawks teased to +1
• Texans teased to +11
• Bills teased to +9

I like all of it. The only knock is teasing Seattle through zero, which keeps it from being a clean A, but it’s still strong.

Touchdown Genie

I’m going big this week. Here’s my three-leg touchdown genie, coming in at +704:

• Josh Allen
• Davante Adams
• Puka Nacua

Josh Allen runs one in. The Rams score at will, and Puka and Davante both find the end zone.

Nick Wright’s Picks for the Divisional Round & CFP National Championship

In summary, here’s what I’m on:

• Bills +1
• 49ers +7
• Patriots -3
• Rams -4
• Miami +8.5 (and ML)

Best weekend of football all year. Enjoy it. We’ll talk Tuesday.