Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a nice mix of first-inning bets on today’s MLB slate, including one NRFI pick and two YRFI plays on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s break down the best NRFI and YRFI picks for June 16.

NRFI/YRFI Best Bets for Tuesday, June 16

• White Sox at Yankees NRFI (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
• Mets at Reds YRFI (Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
• Twins at Rangers YRFI (Globe Life Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)

YRFI Pick: Mets at Reds

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-125)

We’ll start at Great American Ball Park for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Reds host the New York Mets. You can grab this YRFI at -125 on Hard Rock Bet, and there’s a lot to like about the setup.

Kodai Senga gets the start for New York, and this marks his return to the big leagues after not pitching in an MLB game since the end of April. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed Senga will start and noted that he feels 100%.

I’m not sure if 100% is good enough, though. Before being shut down, Senga struggled mightily. In fact, during his last three MLB appearances, he only made it through three innings once, giving up seven, six, and three earned runs, respectively. Senga also walked at least two batters in every appearance this season and didn’t strike out more than three in any of those final three outings.

Senga had a nice Double-A rehab start for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies five days ago, but this is obviously a massive step up in competition. He’ll come back to the majors and have to deal with one of baseball’s best hitting environments with temperatures in the high 70s.

Meanwhile, Brady Singer could easily contribute to a first-inning run himself. Singer has objectively been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He ranks no better than the seventh percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, and average exit velocity allowed, according to Baseball Savant.

He’s also giving up an 11.8% barrel rate, good for just the ninth percentile. Hitters are making loud contact against him, and he’s been just about as bad as advertised.

A great ballpark, one truly bad pitcher, and another coming back from a lengthy absence who’s been erratic throughout his MLB career. I really like our odds at -125.

NRFI Pick: White Sox at Yankees

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-130)

Next, we’ll head to Yankee Stadium for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where the White Sox visit the Yankees. Davis Martin takes the hill for his AL Central-leading club against Gerrit Cole.

Cole has been absolutely fantastic since returning from the IL, posting a 2.45 ERA with advanced metrics that fully support his dominance. He’s sporting a strong chase rate and has been limiting barrels and hard contact across the board.

Davis Martin has been a revelation for the White Sox at 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA. The advanced metrics are hinting at some negative regression down the line, but he’s still profiling as a slightly better-than-league-average arm right now.

Both teams’ best players remain out — Aaron Judge and Munetaka Murakami — and each team had an off day on Monday, so there could be a touch of lethargy out of the gate.

We have two pitchers who are really grooving right now, including the underrated Martin, and while the Yankees are a potent first-inning scoring team, I think the tiny bit of juice at -130 on Hard Rock Bet is worth paying for these two arms.

YRFI Pick: Twins at Rangers

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-110)

We’ll close at Globe Life Field for an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Twins visit the Rangers. Zebby Matthews takes the hill for Minnesota against Kumar Rocker, and despite neither team exactly lighting the world on fire in first-inning scoring this season, these are really fair odds at -110 on Hard Rock Bet.

I’ve been wrong about Zebby Matthews’ long-term outlook so far. His stuff just hasn’t translated at the MLB level for one reason or another. His 5.20 ERA is terrible, and he was obliterated five days ago against the Tigers, giving up seven earned runs in six innings on nine hits.

In two of his last three starts, he’s now surrendered seven earned runs. The advanced metrics show a 3.77 expected ERA, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky, but his strikeout rate and chase rate remain well below league average, and we haven’t seen any positive regression there yet. He’s also giving up a massive 12% barrel rate. Matthews simply can’t get out of his own way, especially early in games.

Kumar Rocker isn’t much more reassuring. He carries a 3.56 ERA, but the underlying numbers say that’s a bit of a facade because his expected ERA sits at 4.70.

The former top prospect ranks well below league average in pretty much everything except keeping the ball on the ground. He gives up loud, hard contact, doesn’t strike out hitters, and opponents aren’t chasing or whiffing against his pitches.

Globe Life Field is a solid hitting environment, and both of these pitchers will keep you on the edge of your seat with their pure volatility. You also have Byron Buxton at the top of the Minnesota lineup, and it feels like he’s hitting a leadoff home run almost every game right now. He’s a massive early threat who should get a meaningful at-bat in the first inning. At -110, this price is more than fair.

Those are my best NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday. Good luck and enjoy the games!

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Happy Thursday! We’ve got a short but intriguing slate for MLB first-inning bets on June 11, and we’re hunting for value on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s break down the best NRFI and YRFI picks for today’s games!

NRFI/YRFI Best Bets for Thursday, June 11

• Tigers vs. Twins NRFI (Comerica Park – 1:10 p.m. ET)
• Royals vs. Rangers NRFI (Kauffman Stadium – 2:10 p.m. ET)
• Orioles vs. Mariners YRFI (Camden Yards – 7:05 p.m. ET)

YRFI Pick: Orioles vs. Mariners

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-110)

We’ll start in Baltimore, where there is already an excessive heat warning in effect for Thursday. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid-90s at Camden Yards, and the ball should be absolutely flying off the bat.

This pick is primarily a weather angle, and it’s a strong one. Baseball Savant data shows T-Mobile Park is one of the worst hitting environments in all of baseball. And surprisingly, the Mariners actually own the highest wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching this season, which makes it even more remarkable that they’re only a few games over .500.

On Thursday, they won’t have to deal with those suppressed conditions. Instead, they get Camden Yards in a burning heat wave, and that’s a massive upgrade for Seattle’s offense.

Bryan Woo has been really good at home this season, but his road numbers have been poor. The travel to Baltimore and the brutal conditions won’t help. On the other side, Kyle Bradish has been more average and a little underwhelming overall in 2026.

Neither starter is likely to feel comfortable pitching through mid-90s heat. At -110 on Hard Rock Bet, we’re getting a very fair price in conditions that should strongly favor hitters from the jump.

NRFI Pick: Tigers vs. Twins

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-105)

Next, we’ll head to Detroit for a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Tigers host the Twins. Zebby Matthews takes the mound for Minnesota against Keider Montero, and we’re getting a nice price at -105.

Montero has been more than serviceable for Detroit, but the most impressive part of his 2026 season is his first-inning dominance. He has yet to allow a single first-inning run this season, with just two hits allowed across his first-inning appearances. That’s a spotless record, and it’s a major factor in why we’re comfortable laying a small price here.

On the flip side, we’re betting on the raw talent of Zebby Matthews. He’s had multiple cups of coffee in the big leagues with some ups and downs, but he’s been consistently excellent in the minor league system throughout his career.

Importantly, his under-the-hood analytics back it up. He carries a well-above league-average expected ERA and expected batting average allowed, according to Baseball Savant. The talent is there, and the advanced metrics support the belief that he can deliver a clean first inning.

NRFI Pick: Royals vs. Rangers

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (+100)

We’ll close at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City for a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Rangers visit the Royals. We’re hunting for good value on this short Thursday slate, and we found it at even money.

Michael Wacha takes the mound for Kansas City, and his first-inning splits deserve some context. He’s given up six earned runs across 13 first innings this season, but four of them came in a single blowup start. Strip that outlier out, and he’s been pretty darn good, especially at home, where he owns a 2.45 ERA compared to a 4.43 mark on the road.

Wacha is pitching at Kauffman on Thursday, which is the version of him we want. This also isn’t a new trend. Last season, he threw 31 first innings and gave up just six earned runs the entire year.

On the other side, Kumar Rocker has been well below league average in several advanced metrics, which is probably why we’re getting the plus-money price. His first-inning numbers haven’t been pretty this season, but across his last five starts, he’s given up just six earned runs total. Maybe he’s finally finding his footing?

There’s no sugarcoating the Rocker uncertainty, but the odds do the work here, and there are some solid reasons to back this one.

Those are my best NRFI and YRFI picks for Thursday! Good luck and enjoy the games!

Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 8 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We closed last week in style, cashing three of four home run picks on Friday, so let’s see if we can start the new week on the right foot with a smaller, more selective slate.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 8

• Yordan Alvarez (Astros at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

• Colton Cowser (Mariners at Orioles – Camden Yards – 6:35 p.m. ET)

• Gary Sanchez (Brewers at Athletics – Las Vegas Ballpark – 10:05 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez

We’ll start in California, where the Angels host the Astros at Angel Stadium with a 9:38 p.m. ET first pitch. Grayson Rodriguez is scheduled to make his fifth start of the 2026 season for Los Angeles, and it’s been a rough go so far for the former blue-chip prospect.

Once one of the most highly touted arms in Baltimore’s system, Rodriguez has stumbled out of the gate with a 9.50 ERA in 14.1 innings. He’s allowed four home runs in four starts, and the underlying metrics suggest it could easily be worse.

He ranks in just the third percentile in hard-hit rate, the 10th percentile in ground-ball rate, and he’s giving up a double-digit barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. For a former first-rounder and No. 11 overall pick, it’s been an extremely uninspiring start to his Angels’ tenure.

Now he runs into a buzzsaw in the form of the Astros’ lineup, headlined by Yordan Alvarez — arguably the best hitter in baseball right now. Alvarez already has 22 home runs and is slugging .633 against right-handed pitching this season.

His advanced metrics on Baseball Savant basically look fictional; he lives in the 90th–100th percentiles in just about every category that matters for power. Regardless of where the odds land, this is the kind of matchup I’m willing to attack blindly at this point. The Angels’ bullpen hasn’t been great either, as they’ve coughed up 34 home runs as of Sunday.

MLB Home Run Pick: Colton Cowser

Next, we’ll head to the early game on the slate, where the Mariners visit the Orioles at Camden Yards for a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch.

Emerson Hancock has been extremely good on the surface, posting a 2.80 ERA for Seattle, but the advanced metrics are yelling that regression is likely coming.

His expected ERA sits all the way up at 4.17, he’s allowing a double-digit barrel rate, and he ranks in just the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate. Like many Mariners pitchers, Hancock benefits greatly from calling T-Mobile Park home, but this isn’t Seattle — this is Camden Yards in early June, with temperatures likely pushing 80 degrees.

That brings us to Colton Cowser. After an absolutely miserable start to the season, he’s finally woken up. Cowser has hit four home runs over his last 14 games and batted .275 in May, pushing his overall average up to .244. He’s scorching hot at the moment, with a homer in each of his last two games.

Some bettors get skittish about backing a guy who’s already gone deep recently, but this lines up as an interesting positive regression spot for Cowser and a negative one for Hancock. These are pretty generous odds on Hard Rock Bet.

Home Run Long Shot: Gary Sanchez

We’ll close at the Las Vegas Ballpark, where the Athletics host the Brewers at 10:05 p.m. ET. This is one of the more intriguing offensive environments of the day.

Yes, this game is being played in Nevada, which is an interesting wrinkle. There’s an excessive heat warning in the area, as temperatures are projected to be around 97 degrees on Monday.

The Vegas ballpark has longer outfield dimensions than Sutter Health Park, but you can argue that the heat makes this an even crazier hitting environment.

Even though A’s pitcher Jeffrey Springs hasn’t been completely terrible, pitching here will be no easy task. Springs sits in just the 29th percentile in barrel rate and the 17th percentile in ground-ball rate, so hitters are finding loud contact and getting the ball in the air.

This is where I want to take a shot on Gary Sanchez as a classic boom-or-bust power bat. Sanchez has always had strikeout issues, but the flip side is that when he connects, the ball can absolutely fly.

In a small 2026 sample, he’s posted a slugging percentage north of .600 against left-handed pitching, and if you go back to 2024, he hit seven home runs in just 104 at-bats against lefties.

Given the park, the heat, the total, and the matchup, Sanchez is exactly the type of volatility I don’t mind embracing as a long shot on Hard Rock Bet.

Good luck, and let’s crush these home run picks today!

Happy Friday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 5 on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a loaded slate today with some outstanding matchups and great hitting weather across the country. Let’s get into it.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, June 5

• Seiya Suzuki +300 (Giants at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 2:20 p.m. ET)

• JJ Bleday +450 (Reds at Cardinals – Busch Stadium – 8:15 p.m. ET)

• CJ Abrams +575 (Nationals at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)

• James Wood +300 (Nationals at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – 9:40 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bets: CJ Abrams and James Wood

We’ll start at Chase Field in Arizona, where the Washington Nationals are in town to face the Diamondbacks for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Merrill Kelly takes the bump for Arizona, and Father Time appears to be catching up to the 37-year-old righty.

That doesn’t make me feel so good as a 36-year-old, myself, but I’m not the one having to pitch against all-world athletes. He was a quality pitcher for many years, but 2026 has been rough.

Kelly ranks in just the first percentile in barrel rate, allowing a monster 16% barrel rate to hitters this season, according to Baseball Savant. He also sits in just the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate allowed.

The ball is getting hit extremely hard and in the air against him — it’s been barrels galore. Kelly has surrendered 10 home runs so far in 2026, and seven of them have come against left-handed hitters.

The Nationals have two obvious left-handed targets in this spot. CJ Abrams has been outstanding this season, ranking in the 77th percentile in expected slugging percentage on Baseball Savant. Against right-handed pitching, Abrams has posted a .282 ISO, which is a big power number for a 25-year-old who is finally tapping into the pop many believed was always there.

Kelly leans heavily on his changeup, and Abrams has punished right-handed changeups dating back to the beginning of last season. At +575 on Hard Rock Bet — with 11 home runs in 156 at-bats and a .577 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers — this price is extremely generous in a fantastic hitting environment.

James Wood is the second play here at +300. He has 16 home runs on the season, with 12 of them coming in 158 at-bats against right-handed pitching. The lower odds reflect his track record of power production, but believing in this matchup is fully warranted.

I can’t tell you with complete conviction which of these left-handed hitters is definitely going yard today — if I could, I’d be on a yacht somewhere — but I’d be surprised if at least one of them doesn’t hit the ball really, really hard against Kelly based on all of these numbers.

MLB Home Run Pick: Seiya Suzuki +300

Next, we’ll head to Wrigley Field in Chicago for a 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Cubs host the San Francisco Giants. There are some weather implications worth noting here.

Meteorologist Kevin Roth flagged in his Prop Finder weather forecast that scattered storms could cause problems throughout the day. That said, winds of 13 to 15 mph could be blowing out to dead center, and when that happens, Wrigley can play like a funnel for hitters.

Robbie Ray is on the mound for the Giants, and he’s been giving up oodles of power to right-handed hitters this season. According to AddMoreFunds, he’s allowing a massive .287 expected ISO to right-handed bats. He also ranks in just the 10th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 7th percentile in barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.

Seiya Suzuki is my target at +300. He had a quiet May with just two home runs, but he went deep two games ago, and the underlying numbers suggest more is coming. His expected ISO against left-handed pitching is about 50 percentage points higher than his actual ISO, pointing to positive regression ahead.

Dating back to the start of 2025, Suzuki has posted a healthy .227 ISO against left-handed pitching. With Wrigley potentially playing like a launching pad and Ray on the mound, this is a perfect spot — storms and all.

Home Run Pick: JJ Bleday +450

We’ll head to Busch Stadium in St. Louis for an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Cincinnati Reds visit the Cardinals. Kyle Leahy starts for St. Louis and has allowed a .271 expected ISO to left-handed hitters in 2026. He does keep the ball on the ground to some degree, but he’s been getting hit hard, and the warm weather at Busch Stadium only amplifies the environment.

JJ Bleday has been on absolute fire this season with a .379 ISO, and he looks like a fantastic pickup from his multi-year stint with the Athletics. At +450 on Hard Rock Bet, with his power numbers this season and the matchup lined up perfectly against a lefty-vulnerable starter, I don’t mind these odds at all.

Home Run Notes for Friday, June 5

A few more spots worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:

• Warm weather is projected at several venues today, with temperatures hitting at least 80 degrees at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Coors Field in Colorado, and Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Globe Life Field has a retractable roof, but should be north of 80 degrees — my guess is it’s a nice day to leave it partially open.

• Bullpen alert: Two bullpens have now allowed more than 40 home runs this season, and both are on today’s slate. The Nationals’ bullpen leads MLB with 44 home runs allowed, while the Astros’ bullpen has given up 40. The Reds bullpen checks in at 37 as an honorable mention.

• Cardinals vs. Reds: Brady Singer has been miserable this season, and lefty bats are the best angle against him, but the Cardinals don’t have many appetizing left-handed options today. That said, the Reds’ bullpen is also a wreck, so a flyer on a right-handed bat like Jordan Walker in great weather against a brutal starting and bullpen combo isn’t the worst idea on the board.

Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets to start the weekend!

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Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks to kick off the week on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a smaller slate today, but there are a couple of spots that are too good to pass up. Let’s dive into my home run best bets!

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 1

• Mike Trout +325 (Rockies at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

• Jo Adell +350 (Rockies at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

• Juan Soto +325 (Mets at Mariners – T-Mobile Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)

• Honorable mention: Shohei Ohtani +350 (Dodgers at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – TBD p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bets: Mike Trout and Jo Adell

We’ll start in Anaheim, where Kyle Freeland takes the bump for the Rockies in what is an absolutely outstanding home run spot. Freeland is sporting an 8.08 ERA and ranks in just the second percentile in expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant. He’s been just as bad as advertised, which is below league average in pretty much everything.

I can’t even defend Freeland with the Coors Field angle. His home and away ERAs are essentially identical this season, so this isn’t a ballpark issue. This is just a pitcher who isn’t getting it done.

Freeland’s power numbers against right-handed hitters are alarming. According to FanGraphs, Freeland has pitched 33⅓ innings to right-handed batters this season. In that span, righties have gone deep 11 times and posted a .614 slugging percentage. The Angels’ lineup is loaded with capable right-handed hitters, and pretty much the entire order is live to go yard today.

Mike Trout is the most obvious and arguably best candidate on the board at +325. He’s been a treat to watch when healthy this season, posting a .282 expected ISO against left-handed pitching. At that price, it’s hard to say no.

Jo Adell is my second play in this game at +350. He’s posted a .344 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and has absolutely obliterated left-handed fastballs in a small sample.

Adell has six home runs in just 65 at-bats against southpaws, which is a strong ratio by any measure. With a smaller slate today and Freeland on the hill, I don’t mind doubling up in this game.

The weather at Angel Stadium should be around 70 degrees with sunny skies and a light breeze blowing out, which only adds to an already fantastic power environment.

MLB Home Run Pick: Juan Soto +325

Next, we’ll head to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where the Mets visit the Mariners for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. I rarely target home run picks at T-Mobile Park, but the matchup has some sticky data behind it.

Mariner’s starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has a shiny 2.78 ERA on the surface, but he’s a strong regression candidate under the hood. Against left-handed hitters, he’s allowing a .147 ISO — not terrible — but his expected ISO is north of .200, implying there’s some luck in the mix.

The young hurler throws his fastball over 40% of the time to left-handed hitters, and those lefties own a .272 expected ISO against that pitch of his in 2026.

That’s where Juan Soto comes in. After a slow start to the season, Soto has been absolutely on fire. He’s posted a .330 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and in a small but jaw-dropping sample against right-handed fastballs, his ISO is north of .500. He enters this game having hit 10 of his 13 home runs in the month of May alone. The man is grease-fire hot right now.

Soto has 10 home runs in 93 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .688 slugging percentage in that split. Hancock has already surrendered five home runs to left-handed hitters this year, and his regression indicators suggest more are coming. This is an anomaly pick for me at T-Mobile Park, but the stars are aligning. You can grab Soto at +325 on Hard Rock Bet.

Home Run Prediction: Shohei Ohtani +350

Before we get to the notes, Shohei Ohtani is worth a sprinkle at +350 on Hard Rock Bet as the Dodgers visit Chase Field in Arizona. Consider him an honorable mention.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a shiny 2.31 ERA for the Diamondbacks, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Most teams have chosen to platoon stack against him this season, which means he hasn’t faced a ton of left-handed bats.

Rodriguez is allowing just a .108 ISO to lefties, but his expected ISO in that split is nearly 100 points higher at .205. His fastball against left-handed hitters is even more concerning, with a gap of nearly 200 percentage points between his actual ISO and expected ISO on that pitch. That’s one of the largest discrepancies you’ll find. While the sample is admittedly small, it’s a flashing regression warning sign.

Ohtani is completely matchup-proof. He’s a generational hitter who can go deep against anybody, and when you can get him at 3-to-1 or better — especially when there’s a regression candidate on the mound — it’s worth a look.

If you’ve already hit a pick earlier in the night and want to add a fun late-game play, Ohtani at +350 fits the bill perfectly. The metrics suggest hitters will eventually catch up to Rodriguez this season.

Home Run Notes for Monday, June 1

A few more spots worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:

• Jacob deGrom is on the hill at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, where temperatures are projected to hit 80 degrees. Despite a solid season overall, deGrom has already allowed 13 home runs — nine of them to left-handed hitters. Cardinals left-handed bats are worth a look in this spot.

• Chase Field in Arizona is projected to be 97 degrees outside, but the roof will be closed for the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game. Chase has a roof, but it could be a bit more stuffy inside. It’s a great park for bats, regardless, you just won’t be getting the same edge as if this near-100-degree game were being played outdoors.

• Bullpen alert: The bullpen landscape is worth noting today. The Angels have allowed 31 home runs this season, the Rockies and Reds each sit at 34, and the Nationals lead the group at 37 — just one behind the MLB-worst Astros. Washington hosts the Marlins at 6:45 p.m. ET, making them a prime target for late-game power bets.

Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!

Happy Friday! We’ve got a nice mix of first-inning bets on today’s MLB slate, including one NRFI picks and two YRFI plays on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s break down the best NRFI bets for May 29!

NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 29

• Angels at Rays NRFI (Tropicana Field – 7:10 p.m. ET)

• Red Sox at Guardians YRFI (Progressive Field – 7:10 p.m. ET)

• Giants at Rockies YRFI (Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)

NRFI Pick: Angels at Rays

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-130)

We’ll start in Tampa, where Nick Martinez takes the mound against the Angels’ Walbert Urena for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Tropicana Field.

Martinez has been sensational this season with a 1.51 ERA, but he’s been especially dominant in the first inning. In fact, he’s been a goldmine for NRFI picks.

Martinez has thrown 10 first innings this year without allowing a single run — just seven hits and eight strikeouts across those frames. The Angels also carry one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, and having free swingers early in the game can bail a pitcher out of trouble quickly.

On the flip side, Urena is one of the Angels’ top prospects, and he’s pitching like it. Since entering the rotation, he ranks in the 69th percentile in chase rate and the 71st percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. That’s critical against a Tampa Bay team that makes a lot of contact, as Urena has the swing-and-miss stuff to punch back.

He does issue some free passes, but when hitters are making contact against him, it’s typically soft and on the ground. He ranks in the 78th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 82nd percentile in ground-ball rate. As a converted reliever still building his gas tank, Urena has been spotless in the first inning — seven first innings, two hits, one walk, zero earned runs.

Neither pitcher will be perfect forever, but at -130 on Hard Rock Bet, this is a fair price for two arms who have been exceptional at the beginning of games this season. This one is my favorite NRFI pick today.

YRFI Pick: Red Sox at Guardians

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-110)

Next, we’ll head to Progressive Field in Cleveland for a 7:10 p.m. ET matchup. Hitting temperatures are solid across the country today, and I think we’re getting a generous price on a YRFI here.

According to MLB.com, southpaw Tyler Samaniego appears to be opening for the Red Sox. He’s been effective with a sparkling 1.04 ERA this season, but the Guardians’ top of the order is a brutal draw.

The emergence of former top draft pick Travis Bazzana, who has been slotted into the leadoff spot, has injected more life into this lineup. He’s riding a five-game hitting streak that includes two multi-hit games and two doubles in his last outing against the Nationals.

Following Bazzana in the order are Jose Ramírez and breakout youngster Chase DeLauter. Suddenly, Cleveland has three very tough outs at the top of the order.

On the other side, Slade Cecconi pitches for Cleveland and has been a below-average arm with a 4.71 expected ERA. He’s been particularly brutal in the opening frame, yielding 14 hits and seven earned runs in 11 first innings this year.

Boston ranks toward the bottom of the league in first-inning scoring, which is likely why this line sits at just -110. But the Red Sox bats have woken up over the last two weeks, ranking seventh in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

We have several variables trending in a positive direction, and the most important part is an extremely fair price at -110 on Hard Rock Bet.

YRFI Pick: Giants at Rockies

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-135)

We’ll close at Coors Field for an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch, and the juice is fair when you consider the environment. Temperatures are projected to be in the high 70s with a slight breeze blowing out, which is exactly what you want for early offense.

Michael Lorenzen takes the hill for Colorado, and he’s simply not a good Major League pitcher at this point. His luck has finally run out in 2026, and it’s hard to believe he actually threw a no-hitter a few years ago.

Anyway, Lorenzen’s 2026 numbers are ugly: a 7.21 ERA, a 5.88 expected ERA, and he ranks in just the second percentile in expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant. He’s giving up a near-50% hard-hit rate while striking out just 15% of hitters and ranking no better than the 16th percentile in either whiff rate or chase rate.

Lorenzen has also been terrible in the first inning, specifically, allowing 14 hits and nine earned runs across 11 first innings this season. Anytime you can get the San Francisco Giants away from Oracle Park and into Coors Field against a bottom-of-the-barrel starter, it’s a massive bump to their bats.

On the other side, Logan Webb has been surprisingly disappointing to start the season. His ERA is north of 5.00, with a .280 expected batting average against and a hard-hit rate near 50%. He does rank in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate, which is keeping things together somewhat, but at Coors Field’s elevation, even ground-ball pitchers can run into trouble.

When you zoom out, you have great hitting weather at arguably the best park in baseball for runs, with two pitchers who simply aren’t performing well right now. At -135, I think this price is warranted.

Those are my best NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday. Good luck!

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Happy Wednesday! We’re back to find some MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27! Temperatures are climbing across the country again, and it’s a great slate to fire on some home run picks today on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s dive into it.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Wednesday, May 27

• Ben Rice +450 (Yankees at Royals – Kauffman Stadium – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Brandon Lowe +350 (Cubs at Pirates – PNC Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• Brandon Nimmo +450 (Astros at Rangers – Globe Life Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ben Rice

We’ll start at Kauffman Stadium, where the Yankees visit the Royals in what appears to be one of the best hitting environments of the day. First-pitch temperatures are projected to be around 80 degrees in Kansas City, which is ideal for offense, and New York just hung a big number on the Royals yesterday.

Southpaw Noah Cameron is set to take the mound for Kansas City, and he’s been a pitcher to fade all season. After a sub-3.00 ERA in 2025, the underlying metrics were screaming regression, and 2026 has brought that full circle. He ranks in just the 20th percentile in expected ERA and doesn’t show any better than that in average exit velocity, fastball velocity, or expected batting average.

Cameron is also struggling to keep the ball on the ground, giving up a barrel rate north of 10%, according to Baseball Savant. Most notably in this matchup, he has actually been worse against left-handed hitters than righties. His expected ISO against left-handed bats sits at a massive .287, and lefties have been punishing both his fastball and slider — pitches that make up nearly half of his mix to same-sided hitters.

That’s where Rice comes in as my favorite play on the board. Rice is in the midst of a full-blown breakout, hitting .285 with 16 home runs this season and turning himself into a legitimate star. He’s already launched five homers in just 53 at-bats against left-handed pitching, posting a .585 slugging percentage against southpaws.

Under the hood, Rice looks every bit the part of an elite power bat. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, launch angle sweet-spot rate, and average exit velocity on Baseball Savant.

Everything lines up perfectly here: a power-hitting lefty in great weather against a regressing lefty who’s struggling badly against same-handed power, plus a below-average Royals bullpen that is susceptible to the long ball. At +450 on Hard Rock Bet, Rice is my top home run pick for Wednesday.

MLB Home Run Prediction: Brandon Lowe

Next, we’ll head to PNC Park in Pittsburgh for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch, where Jameson Taillon faces his former team. Taillon has already surrendered 17 home runs this season, and left-handed hitters have done most of the damage. Ten of those homers have come from lefties in just 102 at-bats, with LHBs posting a .569 slugging percentage against him.

The batted-ball profile is exactly what we want to target. Taillon ranks in just the fourth percentile in barrel rate and the 21st percentile in ground-ball rate, which is a brutal combination for a pitcher facing power lefties.

The former Pirate is allowing a .333 ISO overall vs. lefties, and his two primary pitches to left-handed hitters — the fastball and changeup — both carry ugly power numbers. Lefties own an outrageous .442 expected ISO against his fastball and a .239 ISO against his changeup.

Lowe is an ideal matchup fit. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Lowe has a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching. Against right-handed fastballs, his ISO jumps to .412, and he still shows plenty of pop against changeups with a .303 ISO in that split, per AddMoreFunds.

Lowe is also having a strong 2026, according to the advanced metrics. He ranks in at least the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and launch angle sweet-spot percentage.

With temperatures expected to be in the mid-70s at PNC Park today, conditions are more than good enough to support power. At +350, Lowe is one of my favorite home run bets on the slate.

Home Run Pick: Brandon Nimmo

We’ll close in Texas, where the Rangers host the Astros at Globe Life Field with an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. With a controlled environment and temperatures in the high 70s, there’s a good chance we’ll see the roof open, which only helps power potential.

Mike Burrows goes for Houston, and he’s been a disappointment after being a popular sleeper coming into the season. Left-handed hitters have given him fits in particular.

Burrows is allowing a .272 ISO to lefties, who have slugged a massive .608 against him so far in 2026. He’s also yielding a well-below-average ground-ball rate.

Nimmo stands out as a strong target in this matchup. After a slow start, Nimmo has started to heat up, with two home runs over the last eight days and five of his six homers this season coming against right-handed pitching.

His current ISO against right-handed pitchers sits at .171, but his expected ISO in that split is nearly 90 points higher at .258, suggesting more power production is on the way.

The Astros’ bullpen has been atrocious and has already allowed 37 home runs, which is the worst bullpen mark in MLB this season. Nimmo is trending up, and the underlying metrics are pointing to positive regression.

Good luck on Wednesday. Let’s hit a few home run picks today!

Happy Friday! A few of today’s MLB pitching matchups and weather conditions are setting up nicely for some first-inning no-run bets on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s break down the best NRFI picks for May 22.

NRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 22

Here are my top NRFI picks today:

• Cubs vs. Astros NRFI (Wrigley Field – 2:05 p.m. ET)

• Phillies vs. Guardians NRFI (Citizens Bank Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)

• Yankees vs. Rays NRFI (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)

NRFI Pick: Cubs vs. Astros

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-150)

We’ll start at Wrigley Field, where Spencer Arrighetti takes the mound against Jameson Taillon for a 2:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Arrighetti has surprisingly been one of the best starters in baseball this season, posting a 1.50 ERA, and Taillon has predictably been… well…Jameson Taillon!

The weather is the headliner here. Winds are blowing in at around 15 mph with temperatures in the mid-50s at first pitch. Meteorologist Kevin Roth noted on his Prop Finder weather analysis that it’s “about as poor of hitting and home run conditions as you can get this time of year” — a strong endorsement from one of the industry’s most respected sports betting weather analysts.

Taillon has also been significantly better at home than on the road in 2026, posting a 3.63 ERA at Wrigley compared to a mark north of 6.00 away from it.

NRFI lines are often heavily juiced, but the combination of elite pitching, brutal weather, and a park where wind conditions can completely shut down offenses makes the -150 price a fair one. This pick could be a strong leg in a first-inning parlay on HRB.

NRFI Pick: Phillies vs. Guardians

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-145)

Next, we head to Citizens Bank Park for a 6:40 p.m. ET matchup between Cristopher Sanchez and Gavin Williams, two of the better starters in baseball right now. The -145 price is fair between two pitchers who have been this dominant.

Sanchez has been arguably the best pitcher in the National League in 2026, and his home numbers are video-game stuff — a 1.00 ERA at Citizens Bank Park with 57 strikeouts in 45 home innings.

Opponents are hitting just above the Mendoza Line against him at home. In his 10 starts this season, he’s allowed only three earned runs across his first innings of work.

On the other side, Gavin Williams has been a breakout story for Cleveland with some genuinely nasty swing-and-miss stuff. He’s allowed five earned runs across 10 first innings this year, but four of them came in just two outings.

The weather in Philadelphia tonight could be damp and dreary, with temperatures hovering around 60 degrees and some wind. Both pitchers generate plenty of whiffs and chases, which makes them less reliant on batted ball luck. We’ll take the pitching and the weather at -145.

NRFI Pick: Yankees vs. Rays

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-115)

We’ll close at Yankee Stadium for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where Gerrit Cole makes his highly anticipated 2026 debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. Nick Martinez starts for Tampa Bay and has been a pleasant surprise this season. He hasn’t allowed a first-inning run in any of his nine first innings this year. Martienz also suppresses hard contact, ranking in the 89th percentile via Baseball Savant.

The Yankees own one of the best first-inning run-scoring rates in baseball, which is part of why we’re getting a very reasonable -115 on this one. Cole is making his season debut and may need some time to find his footing, which introduces a little uncertainty.

Tampa Bay posts one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, which is probably also baked into this nice price. The weather in the Bronx tonight is largely neutral, maybe slightly favorable for pitchers.

Cole flashed solid strikeout stuff in his last two minor league rehab starts. Of course, it’s been roughly 1.5 years since the Yankees’ ace pitched at a high level. But it makes me feel better that his 2024 first-inning track record was very good for NRFI picks, as Cole allowed just two first-inning runs across 17 starts.

We’ll bank on Martinez’s excellent 2026 first-inning track record, Cole’s historical pedigree as one of the best starters in the game when healthy, and that extremely fair -115 price as our third and final NRFI pick for Friday.

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

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