What’s up friends, welcome back in to Leading Off.

The trade deadline is just hours away, and we’ve got a pair of Hard Rock Best Bets for Monday night.

Let’s get into it.

Welsh’s Best Bet: AZ-SD F5 Under 4.5 (+105)

I’m going with a first five innings run total in Diamondbacks vs. Padres. I know, it’s crazy. But give me under 4.5 runs for the first five in this one.

We’ve got Brandon Pfaadt, who’s been ridiculous in the early parts of games, going up against Michael King – who’s somewhat owned the Diamondbacks as of late. In his last two outings against Arizona, he’s given up 3 total earned runs.

If Pfaadt can continue this roll he’s been on and King can do the same, I like our chances tonight to keep this one low scoring.

Orrico’s Best Bet: SF-TEX Over 8.5 (+105)

I’m going the other way, taking an over tonight in Giants vs. Rangers.

This bet ultimately comes down to Cal Quantrill. I think he’s been extremely lucky to have a 3.84 ERA this season – he’s nowhere near that good, and we’re starting to see it recently.

Logan Webb is on the other side, and he hasn’t really had the same success we’re used to seeing from him this season.

At plus money for such a low total at 8.5, give me the over in Giants vs. Rangers for my Hard Rock Best Bet.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for August 3

• Diamondbacks vs. Padres F5 Under 4.5 (+105)
• Giants vs. Rangers Over 8.5 (+105)

We are back with another edition of Leading Off, locking in our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Day for Friday’s MLB slate.

Scott Bogman’s Best Bet: Brandon Young Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120)

I’m taking Brandon Young under 2.5 earned runs.

The Phillies are struggling this month, with 12 games of scoring two or fewer runs in July. They rank 21st in ISO, 22nd in OBP, 23rd in home runs, 24th in batting average, 25th in hitting WAR, and 28th in strikeout percentage.

Young has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last six games, including each of his last two starts. So, let’s go with Young and fade the Phillies.

Chris Welsh’s Best Bet: Rays F5 Run Line -0.5 (-110)

I’m going with the Rays first five on the run line.

Nick Martinez has just been a demon out there. He has a 10-2 record and a 2.45 ERA. The Rays are in the thick of it. Obviously, the White Sox are as well, but I’m not a big Erick Fedde fan. This is why I think things are going to come apart in these first few innings.

Martinez has been really, really hard to hit early. I think the Rays are going to get to Fedde a little bit here. Fedde just worries me too much.

So, Rays first five run line is what I’m playing today. No push here – we have to be up through five innings – but that is going to be my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 31

• Brandon Young Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120)
• Rays First 5 Innings Run Line -0.5 (-110)

What’s going on, everybody?

We’re back with Leading Off and we have a pair of Hard Rock Best Bets for tonight’s MLB slate.

KC’s Best Bet: C.J. Abrams Over 3 H+R+RBI (+133)

With Grant Holmes on the mound for the Braves, I’m targeting one of the hottest offenses in baseball: the Washington Nationals.

Give me C.J. Abrams over 3 hits + runs + RBIs at +133.

Abrams has been red hot lately, and this matchup sets up well for him to keep producing.

Orrico’s Best Bet: Braves vs. Nationals Over 9.5 (-105)

I’m also targeting Grant Holmes today. I think Nick Pollack has the best nickname in the industry for him: “The Realtor,” because he grants homes. It’s phenomenal.

Anyway, I’m backing the over in Braves vs. Nationals at -105.

Jake Irvin faces Grant Holmes in a matchup featuring two strong offenses and two pitchers I don’t have a ton of confidence in, so I’ll gladly take the over.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 30

• C.J. Abrams Over 3 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+133)
• Braves vs. Nationals Over 9.5 (-105)

It’s just been one of those paper-cut type of weeks. A lot of 1-2 days. We’ve got to find a way to flip that over.

The player props have not been good this week, so I’m going to get away from them today. We started off Monday and Tuesday playing those, but that experiment of going with two bets and a player prop has not worked.

The Yankees won both days for us. The Phillies lost both days for us, so I’m going to move away from the Phillies. Things might be going a little bit south in Philadelphia here towards the end of July.

But that takes us to a loaded Wednesday slate. I have a Hard Rock Bet of the Day along with three other bets – four sides and totals coming up today. Maybe that’ll change the mojo here and get us rolling towards a profitable week.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)

Let’s start with Jared Jones and the Pirates.

In the month of July, Jones has a 1.29 ERA. He’s been great. Last time out, six innings, one earned run. The time before that, five innings, one earned run. Before that, six innings with no earned runs against the Cubs, Guardians and Braves. He also went four innings and gave up one earned run in a road start against the Phillies.

The Pirates have split the first two games with the Diamondbacks, losing 8-7 after winning 3-2. We have the third game of the series today.

Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt. He allowed two earned runs over six innings in his last road start. His last home start after the All-Star break didn’t go well, giving up five earned runs in 2.2 innings, but maybe that’s just rust after the break. Before that, he tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Dodgers. He has a 4.79 ERA in July, but he was an All-Star with a 9-3 record and a 2.64 ERA.

I’m going to bank on a lack of offense today. Hopefully Pfaadt gets back to being sharp. Yesterday finished 8-7 with a lot of offense, but now we’re on a quick turnaround with a getaway day game in Pittsburgh.

The hope is we don’t go to extra innings. Let’s avoid extra innings. Let’s avoid seeing a bunch of offense. Extra-inning games have been a nightmare here, but let’s avoid that and get ourselves a final in nine innings. If we do that, I think we’re going to be good.

Yankees vs. White Sox: Yankees Moneyline (-140)

Next up is Cam Schlittler.

He’s been very good in the month of July, posting a 2.05 ERA over 26.1 innings with just six earned runs allowed. He’s given up only two home runs all month.

Last time out, he threw 7.1 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Phillies. His last home start came in an 8-2 loss to the Dodgers, but he still allowed only three earned runs in 4.1 innings. Before that, he helped beat the Nationals 4-2 and the Rays 5-1. Three road starts, three road wins for the Yankees with Cam on the mound.

He’s matched up against Davis Martin for the White Sox. Chicago has lost six of Martin’s last seven starts, including every game he’s started in July. Over 18 innings this month, he’s allowed 12 earned runs.

Martin actually hasn’t been horrible at home, but the White Sox haven’t given him much run support. Now they face a very good young Yankees pitcher, and once the bullpens get involved, it’s bad news for Chicago.

This is a four-game series, and the Yankees have won the first two. We’ve bet the Yankees in both games. Frankly, it goes right back to the same handicap we’ve been using. The White Sox have been great at home, the Yankees have been very good on the road, and New York needs to keep winning to keep pace with Tampa while staying ahead of Boston.

I’ll bet the streak.

Rangers vs. Rays: Rangers Moneyline (+119)

We go to the Rangers and MacKenzie Gore.

The Rangers have won three consecutive Gore starts: 6-5 over the Astros, 7-6 over the Braves and 5-4 over Seattle.

His July ERA is inflated because of one outing when he allowed seven earned runs in five innings against the Angels. Since then, he’s turned things around and the Rangers have won three straight games with him on the mound.

I don’t mind the over in this game either because the total is pretty low, but I’m looking at Gore on the road. His road numbers aren’t great, but he’s pitched much better lately.

Texas has won four of its last five games. Tampa Bay is 38-16 at home, but the Rangers won last night. They’re facing a bullpen game for the Rays, with Casey Legumina expected to open before Tampa turns things over to the bullpen.

It’s an all-hands-on-deck bullpen game against a hot Texas pitcher.

The Rangers won 4-1 yesterday. I’ll come right back with Texas at plus money.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Tigers vs. Orioles Under 7.5 (-114)

Let’s talk about our Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

It’s Tarik Skubal time for the Tigers. The Tigers have won three of the four games started by Skubal during the month of July. He has a 1.48 ERA and is very much on the trading block for the Tigers to ship him out. Where will he go? Who knows? But he’s been very good since coming back from the arm injury.

On the road, Skubal owns a 2.05 ERA and a 4-3 record. At home, it’s a 3.46 ERA with a 3-2 mark. The opposing batting average is really, really low.

The Orioles counter with Trevor Rogers. Baltimore has won five of his last six starts. Last time out against the Braves, he threw seven innings and allowed two earned runs. The game should have gone under, but extra innings kicked in and Baltimore lost 7-6. That wasn’t Trevor Rogers’ fault.

You’re facing one of the best pitchers in Skubal, and Rogers has a 1.48 ERA himself. This screams a dead-under pitching battle on a Wednesday between Baltimore and Detroit.

It’s a 1:00 p.m. day game. Hopefully that means great pitching performances. We’ve seen scores of 8-5 and 14-0 in the first two games of the series. It’s the rubber game, and hopefully all the offense got out over the last two games, leaving a great pitching duel on deck today.

Wednesday’s MLB Betting Card

• Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Under 8.5 Runs (-115) (1.15 units)
• Yankees Moneyline (-140) (1.4 units)
• Rangers Moneyline (+119) (1 unit)
• Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Tigers vs. Orioles Under 7.5 (-114) (1.14 units)

What’s going on, everybody? Welcome in to FantasyPros.

We’re back with another episode of Leading Off, where we break down the biggest headlines from around Major League Baseball.

We’ve got a couple of interesting news stories and notes to get through, along with our Hard Rock Best Bets for Tuesday night.

KC’s Best Bet: Otto Lopez Over 3 H+R+RBI (+150)

I’m sticking with the game in Miami, where I was originally going with Connor Norby. Instead, I’m taking Otto Lopez over 3 hits + runs + RBIs at +150.

Lopez had been in a bit of a slump, but he broke out in a big way Monday night against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies, going 3-5 with two RBI while also scoring two runs. At plus money, this number feels like a gift.

Orrico’s Best Bet: AZ-PIT Over 9.5 Runs (+115)

I’m taking the over 9.5 runs at +115 in the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates game.

Brandon Pfaadt has won each of his last five starts, but we talked yesterday about him as a potential sell candidate. During that stretch, he’s totaled just 14 strikeouts in five starts, and I think the regression is coming against a good Arizona offense.

On the other side is Bubba Chandler, who has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season.

With questions surrounding both starters, I’ll gladly take plus money on the over.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 28

• Otto Lopez Over 3 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+150)
• Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Over 9.5 Runs (+115)

We are back with another edition of Leading Off, locking in another pair of Hard Rock Best Bets of the Day.

Today’s card features two different betting angles. One of us is targeting a low-scoring showdown between the Orioles and Tigers, while the other is backing a strikeout prop in the Red Sox-Athletics matchup.

Joe Orrico’s Best Bet: Orioles vs. Tigers Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

I’m taking a total for Orioles vs. Tigers at under 8.5 runs. It’s Kyle Bradish vs. Keider Montero. I think people would be surprised by how good Montero has been this year.

WHIP is one of my favorite stats to look at. I think it’s more predictive and tells you more about a pitcher than ERA does.

If you look at the WHIP leaderboards this year, Jacob Misiorowski is No. 1, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is No. 2, Cam Schlittler is No. 3, Drew Rasmussen is No. 4, and Montero comes in at No. 5 with a 0.96 WHIP on the season. He has a 3.14 ERA and has been awesome whenever he’s been given a chance to start, which he’s doing tonight going up against the Orioles.

Bradish, who was a bit of a punchline for the first couple of months of the season, has posted a 2.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last month. So, I’m targeting two really good starting pitchers who are on a roll.

Give me under 8.5 runs at -110.

Chris Welsh’s Best Bet: Payton Tolle 6+ K’s (-110)

I’m going to stay in the strikeout market, and I’m going with Payton Tolle over six strikeouts.

He’s carrying a 26% strikeout rate and is going up against the Athletics, who rank among the eight worst teams in baseball in strikeouts per game, averaging around 8.5. So, I’m sticking with the Red Sox across the board. He’s been hot, and he’s hit this number over his last couple of starts.

The A’s strike out a decent amount, and with that high strikeout percentage, I really like this number. It’s not super juiced up, either.

Sacramento makes the ball fly, which I think makes people a little scared of this one, but that’s what I’m going with for my Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 27

• Orioles vs. Tigers Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
• Payton Tolle To Record 6+ Strikeouts (-110)

Joe Orrico’s Best Bet: Reds vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 Runs

I’m going with the over in Reds vs. Cardinals. Give me over 8.5 runs.

I’d see if you can find it listed at plus money, but I love this matchup either way. Rhett Lowder and Dustin May have both struggled badly of late, so 8.5 feels like a pretty low total.

I don’t even know if we’ll need to get to the bullpens for this one to cash. I think we’re going to see plenty of runs scored today.

KC Bubba’s Best Bet: Corbin Carroll Over 3 R+H+RBI (+120)

I’m going to keep riding the Corbin Carroll train with Carroll over 3 runs + hits + RBIs at +120.

He’s been doing it all lately. It’s either home runs or triples, and he’s constantly finding ways to fill up the box score.

Now he heads to Washington, a great ballpark to hit in, with Carson Palmquist opening before Zack Littell takes over. Littell ranks among the league leaders in home runs allowed, making this a great spot for Carroll to stay hot.

I love getting plus money on props like this, so that’s where I’m going today.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 24

• Reds vs. Cardinals Over 8.5 Runs
• Corbin Carroll Over 3 Runs + Hits + RBIs (+120)

KC Bubba’s Best Bet: Riley Greene Over 3 R+H+RBI (+135)

I’m going right back to Riley Greene and the Detroit Tigers this evening.

Give me Riley Greene over 3 runs + hits + RBIs (+135).

Basically, if he goes deep, we’re already at a push.

I think, at worst, he drives in a few guys and has a big night – mainly because I don’t think Randy Dobnak is any good.

Joe Orrico’s Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (+110)

I’m also backing Detroit against Dobnak here.

My Hard Rock Best Bet of the Day is Tigers run line (-1.5) at +110.

And if Alex Chamberlain is reading this, I sincerely apologize because I know you’ve loved Randy Dobnak for a long, long time.

But I also don’t believe he’s all that great, and I love this matchup for Detroit with Melton on the bump.

Melton has been phenomenal this season, so give me the Tigers on the run line at +110.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 23

• Riley Greene Over 3 Runs + Hits + RBIs (+135)
• Tigers -1.5 (+110)

Tuesday turned into a losing day thanks largely to the Phillies and J.T. Realmuto. What was that?

The Phillies were rallying, had a chance to pull it out, and then a 5-2-6-4 double play ended the game. Zack Wheeler delivered an unbelievable performance that ultimately went to waste. The Rays came through, but the Brewers were shut out 4-0 by the Mets. The result was a 1-2 day, giving back a little more than a unit and a half after Monday’s sweep.

Wednesday’s card features three official wagers: a side, a total, and one player prop, along with the Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

White Sox vs. Rangers: Over 8.5 Runs (-110)

Let’s start in Texas. Each team has scored 10 runs in one of the first two games of this series, with the White Sox earning a 10-3 win and the Rangers responding with a 10-0 victory on Tuesday.

What am I coming back with? The over.

Anthony Kay gets the start for the White Sox. He’s pitched reasonably well at times, but this feels like a spot where Texas can get to him.

The Rangers counter with Tyler Alexander, who continues to serve as more of an opener than a traditional starter. He’ll likely throw only an inning or two and has allowed two and one earned runs in his last two appearances, both against Atlanta.

This series has been all about offense, and there’s no reason to step away from that trend now.

• Pick: White Sox vs. Rangers Over 8.5 Runs (-110) (1.1 units)

Reds vs. Mariners: Mariners Moneyline (-148)

The second play fades Brady Singer. Singer owns a 4-9 record with a 4.56 ERA overall, but his road numbers are much worse: 6.14 ERA, 1-5 record, .311 opposing batting average, and 33 earned runs allowed in 48.1 innings. The Reds have lost four of his last five starts, and dating back to early May, they’ve won only two games with Singer on the mound.

Seattle counters with Emerson Hancock. Hancock enters 6-4 with a 3.17 ERA. His last outing lasted only 1.2 innings against Tampa Bay, but before that he threw seven scoreless innings against Toronto. He’s yet to allow an earned run in July over 8.2 innings. That performance snapped a three-game losing streak for Hancock, and now he gets a favorable matchup against a struggling Reds starter.

• Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-148) (1.48 units)

Twins vs. Guardians: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-129)

This is more about fading Guardians starter Slade Cecconi, who has surrendered six and nine hits in his last two outings while allowing three and five earned runs.

The focus, though, is Byron Buxton. Buxton recorded one hit yesterday after collecting two hits the game before. His Hits+Runs+RBI prop sits at 1.5.

There are multiple ways to cash this ticket. Two hits gets it done. A single and an RBI sacrifice fly gets it done. The number is simply too attractive to pass up.

• Pick: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-129) (1.29 units)

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Marlins Moneyline (+100)

Today’s Hard Rock Bet of the Day backs a team looking to snap a lengthy losing streak. The Marlins have dropped eight straight games.

Ironically, after betting Miami to make the playoffs, everything has gone wrong. Yet despite the skid, they’re still only a half-game out of a postseason spot.

Sandy Alcántara gets the ball. Over his last two starts, Miami has lost 2-1 to Milwaukee and 3-2 to Cleveland, but Alcántara has been excellent, posting a 2.14 ERA in July. Before those two defeats, the Marlins hadn’t lost one of his starts since May.

Houston counters with Peter Lambert, who has also pitched well recently, allowing just two earned runs over 17.2 innings across three July starts.

Still, this feels like a spot where Miami can finally break through. Whether it’s getting into Houston’s bullpen or simply getting another strong outing from Alcántara, there’s value backing the Marlins at even money.

• Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Marlins Moneyline (+100) (1 unit)

Wednesday’s MLB Betting Card

• White Sox vs. Rangers Over 8.5 Runs (-110) (1.1 units)
• Mariners Moneyline (-148) (1.48 units)
• Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-129) (1.29 units)
• Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Marlins Moneyline (+100) (1 unit)

We are back with another edition of Leading Off, locking in our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Day.

With a pair of first-five wagers on the board, our focus is on fading struggling pitchers, riding hot offenses, and finding value at Hard Rock Bet.

Scott Bogman’s Best Bet: Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs in the F5 Innings (+250)

I homered out with this one.

I’m taking the Diamondbacks over 4.5 runs in the first five innings at +250.

Jeffrey Springs has given up five or more earned runs in five of his last six starts and has gone at least 5.1 innings in only one of those five outings.

The D-backs have some nice momentum after the big comeback win on Sunday. Obviously, there will probably be no Corbin Carroll in the lineup tonight, but they have been hitting this past weekend.

Chris Welsh’s Best Bet: Cardinals F5 ML (-105)

Mine is almost even money.

I’m going with the Cardinals first five moneyline, right around -105. This is picking on José Soriano.

Soriano with the Angels has been on a falling trend. The walks have been going up. I know he’s kind of in the trade market.

The Cardinals have been absolutely red hot. I think I’ve had the Cardinals here a couple of times. I can push it potentially. But I’m going for the win here, for Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt getting on the board early.

So, Cardinals first five on the moneyline is my Hard Rock Bet of the Day. If they’re up through the first five, I win. If they’re tied, we get our money back. We push.

FantasyPros’ Best Bets for July 20

• Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs in the First 5 Innings (+250)
• Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105)