NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks + Predictions for June 16

Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a nice mix of first-inning bets on today’s MLB slate, including one NRFI pick and two YRFI plays on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s break down the best NRFI and YRFI picks for June 16.

NRFI/YRFI Best Bets for Tuesday, June 16

• White Sox at Yankees NRFI (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
• Mets at Reds YRFI (Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
• Twins at Rangers YRFI (Globe Life Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)

YRFI Pick: Mets at Reds

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-125)

We’ll start at Great American Ball Park for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Reds host the New York Mets. You can grab this YRFI at -125 on Hard Rock Bet, and there’s a lot to like about the setup.

Kodai Senga gets the start for New York, and this marks his return to the big leagues after not pitching in an MLB game since the end of April. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed Senga will start and noted that he feels 100%.

I’m not sure if 100% is good enough, though. Before being shut down, Senga struggled mightily. In fact, during his last three MLB appearances, he only made it through three innings once, giving up seven, six, and three earned runs, respectively. Senga also walked at least two batters in every appearance this season and didn’t strike out more than three in any of those final three outings.

Senga had a nice Double-A rehab start for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies five days ago, but this is obviously a massive step up in competition. He’ll come back to the majors and have to deal with one of baseball’s best hitting environments with temperatures in the high 70s.

Meanwhile, Brady Singer could easily contribute to a first-inning run himself. Singer has objectively been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He ranks no better than the seventh percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, and average exit velocity allowed, according to Baseball Savant.

He’s also giving up an 11.8% barrel rate, good for just the ninth percentile. Hitters are making loud contact against him, and he’s been just about as bad as advertised.

A great ballpark, one truly bad pitcher, and another coming back from a lengthy absence who’s been erratic throughout his MLB career. I really like our odds at -125.

NRFI Pick: White Sox at Yankees

• The Pick: No Run First Inning (-130)

Next, we’ll head to Yankee Stadium for a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where the White Sox visit the Yankees. Davis Martin takes the hill for his AL Central-leading club against Gerrit Cole.

Cole has been absolutely fantastic since returning from the IL, posting a 2.45 ERA with advanced metrics that fully support his dominance. He’s sporting a strong chase rate and has been limiting barrels and hard contact across the board.

Davis Martin has been a revelation for the White Sox at 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA. The advanced metrics are hinting at some negative regression down the line, but he’s still profiling as a slightly better-than-league-average arm right now.

Both teams’ best players remain out — Aaron Judge and Munetaka Murakami — and each team had an off day on Monday, so there could be a touch of lethargy out of the gate.

We have two pitchers who are really grooving right now, including the underrated Martin, and while the Yankees are a potent first-inning scoring team, I think the tiny bit of juice at -130 on Hard Rock Bet is worth paying for these two arms.

YRFI Pick: Twins at Rangers

• The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-110)

We’ll close at Globe Life Field for an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Twins visit the Rangers. Zebby Matthews takes the hill for Minnesota against Kumar Rocker, and despite neither team exactly lighting the world on fire in first-inning scoring this season, these are really fair odds at -110 on Hard Rock Bet.

I’ve been wrong about Zebby Matthews’ long-term outlook so far. His stuff just hasn’t translated at the MLB level for one reason or another. His 5.20 ERA is terrible, and he was obliterated five days ago against the Tigers, giving up seven earned runs in six innings on nine hits.

In two of his last three starts, he’s now surrendered seven earned runs. The advanced metrics show a 3.77 expected ERA, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky, but his strikeout rate and chase rate remain well below league average, and we haven’t seen any positive regression there yet. He’s also giving up a massive 12% barrel rate. Matthews simply can’t get out of his own way, especially early in games.

Kumar Rocker isn’t much more reassuring. He carries a 3.56 ERA, but the underlying numbers say that’s a bit of a facade because his expected ERA sits at 4.70.

The former top prospect ranks well below league average in pretty much everything except keeping the ball on the ground. He gives up loud, hard contact, doesn’t strike out hitters, and opponents aren’t chasing or whiffing against his pitches.

Globe Life Field is a solid hitting environment, and both of these pitchers will keep you on the edge of your seat with their pure volatility. You also have Byron Buxton at the top of the Minnesota lineup, and it feels like he’s hitting a leadoff home run almost every game right now. He’s a massive early threat who should get a meaningful at-bat in the first inning. At -110, this price is more than fair.

Those are my best NRFI and YRFI picks for Tuesday. Good luck and enjoy the games!

More Ways to Bet

If you’re riding with a NRFI and every pitch matters early, Florida players can keep the excitement going with Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, available exclusively on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a fast, fun way to stay in the action while you wait for the first inning to wrap up.